Disentangling Business Cycles and Macroeconomic policy in Mercosur: a VAR and an Unobserved Components Models Approaches
AbstractThis paper analyses the feasibility of a monetary union within the Mercosur, focusing on cycle synchronicity. Three questions are addressed, concerning respectively the features of shocks hitting each member, the impact of exchange rate regime differences on countries’ responses and the share of common and idiosyncratic components in shocks and policy responses. Shocks are identified through identical country-VARs. This paper concludes that there exists a weak cycle synchronization, due to asymmetric shocks and divergences in policy responses. The endogenous approach in OCA theory can advise the adoption of a common nominal anchor, in order to speed up convergence
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University in its journal Journal of Economic Integration.
Volume (Year): 22 (2007)
Issue (Month): ()
Business Cycles; OCA; Co-movement; VAR; Unobserved components model; Mercosur;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
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- Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Sand-Zantman, Alain, 2009. "Does a Monetary Union protect against external shocks?: An assessment of Latin American integration," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 102-118.
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