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Disentangling Business Cycles and Macroeconomic policy in Mercosur: a VAR and an Unobserved Components Models Approaches

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  • Allegret, Jean-Pierre

    ()
    (Lumière Lyon2)

Abstract

This paper analyses the feasibility of a monetary union within the Mercosur, focusing on cycle synchronicity. Three questions are addressed, concerning respectively the features of shocks hitting each member, the impact of exchange rate regime differences on countries’ responses and the share of common and idiosyncratic components in shocks and policy responses. Shocks are identified through identical country-VARs. This paper concludes that there exists a weak cycle synchronization, due to asymmetric shocks and divergences in policy responses. The endogenous approach in OCA theory can advise the adoption of a common nominal anchor, in order to speed up convergence

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University in its journal Journal of Economic Integration.

Volume (Year): 22 (2007)
Issue (Month): ()
Pages: 482-514

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Handle: RePEc:ris:integr:0404

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Web page: http://econo.sejong.ac.kr/
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Related research

Keywords: Business Cycles; OCA; Co-movement; VAR; Unobserved components model; Mercosur;

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Cited by:
  1. Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Sand-Zantman, Alain, 2009. "Does a Monetary Union protect against external shocks?: An assessment of Latin American integration," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 102-118.

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