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Disentangling business cycles and macroeconomic policy in Mercosur: a VAR and unobserved components model approaches

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  • Jean-Pierre Allegret

    ()
    (GATE - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS : UMR5824 - Université Lumière - Lyon II - Ecole Normale Supérieure Lettres et Sciences Humaines)

  • Alain Sand-Zantman

    ()
    (GATE - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS : UMR5824 - Université Lumière - Lyon II - Ecole Normale Supérieure Lettres et Sciences Humaines)

Abstract

This paper analyses the feasibility of a monetary union within the Mercosur, focusing on cycle synchronicity. Three questions are addressed, concerning respectively the features of shocks hitting each member, the impact of exchange rate regime differences on countries' responses and the share of common and idiosyncratic components in shocks and policy responses. Shocks are identified through identical country-VARs. This paper concludes that there exists a weak cycle synchronization, due to asymmetric shocks and divergences in policy responses. The endogenous approach in OCA theory can advise the adoption of a common nominal anchor, in order to speed up convergence.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by HAL in its series Post-Print with number halshs-00238495.

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Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published, Journal of Economic Integration, 2007, 22, 3, 482-514
Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00238495

Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00238495/en/
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Related research

Keywords: Business Cycles; OCA; Co-movement; VAR; Unobserved components model; Mercosur;

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  1. Eichengreen, Barry, 1998. "Does Mercosur Need a Single Currency?," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt6fw631qn, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  2. Martin Gonzalez-Rozada & Jose Maria Fanelli, 2004. "Business Cycles and Macroeconomic Policy Coordination in Mercosur," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 328, Econometric Society.
  3. P. Geoffrey Allen & Robert Fildes, 2005. "Levels, Differences and ECMs - Principles for Improved Econometric Forecasting," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(s1), pages 881-904, December.
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  7. Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L, 1995. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Shocks to Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 975-1009, November.
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  11. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "State-Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262112388, December.
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  13. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & McDermott, C John & Prasad, Eswar S, 2000. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries: Some Stylized Facts," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 14(2), pages 251-85, May.
  14. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2014. "Addicted to Dollars," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(1), pages 1-50, May.
  15. Sebastian Edwards, 2006. "Monetary Unions, External Shocks and Economic Performance," Working Papers 126, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  16. Larrain Felipe & Jose Tavares, 2003. "Regional Currencies Versus Dollarization: Options for Asia and the Americas," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 35-49.
  17. Rand, John & Tarp, Finn, 2002. "Business Cycles in Developing Countries: Are They Different?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2071-2088, December.
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  22. Ahmed, Shaghil, 2003. "Sources of economic fluctuations in Latin America and implications for choice of exchange rate regimes," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 181-202, October.
  23. repec:rus:hseeco:123906 is not listed on IDEAS
  24. Paul Hallwood & Ian W. Marsh & Joerg Scheibe, 2004. "An Assessment of the Case for Monetary Union or Official Dollarization in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Uruguay and Venezuela," Working papers 2004-13, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Alain Sand, 2007. "Modeling the impact of real and financial shocks on Mercosur: the role of the exchange rate regime," Working Papers 0701, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique (GATE), Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS), Université Lyon 2, Ecole Normale Supérieure.
  2. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2009. "Does a Monetary Union protect again shocks? An assessment of Latin American integration," Post-Print halshs-00371069, HAL.
  3. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2008. "Does a Monetary Union protect again foreign shocks? An assessment of Latin American integration using a Bayesian VAR," Post-Print halshs-00269122, HAL.
  4. Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Sand-Zantman, Alain, 2009. "Does a Monetary Union protect against external shocks?: An assessment of Latin American integration," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 102-118.
  5. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2008. "Monetary Integration Issues in Latin America: a multivariate assessment," Post-Print halshs-00353356, HAL.

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