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Transmission des chocs et mécanismes d'ajustement dans le Mercosur

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  • Jean-Pierre Allegret

    ()
    (GATE - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS : UMR5824 - Université Lumière - Lyon II - Ecole Normale Supérieure Lettres et Sciences Humaines)

  • Alain Sand-Zantman

    ()
    (GATE - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS : UMR5824 - Université Lumière - Lyon II - Ecole Normale Supérieure Lettres et Sciences Humaines)

Abstract

Cet article étudie la faisabilité d'une union monétaire au sein du Mercosur dans la perspective théorique des zones monétaires optimales. L'étude s'appuie sur l'estimation d'un ensemble de modèles VAR semi-structurels incluant des variables réelles et financières internationales et domestiques pour chacune des trois principales économies de la zone. L'exercice conclut à la fragilité de ce processus d'intégration régionale. Les VARs soulignent tout d'abord la faible convergence des politiques économiques menées dans les trois pays étudiés ; les chocs nominaux - ici, les chocs de prix - conduisent en particulier à des ajustements sensiblement différents. La désagrégation de l'ensemble des chocs à l'aide d'un modèle à composantes inobservables confirme cette asymétrie des comportements en soulignant le faible poids des composantes communes, notamment pour les chocs de politique économique domestiques. Enfin, l'intégration de la variable EMBI montre que les pays de la zone réagissent également très différemment à un même choc financier externe, et ce essentiellement en raison de régimes de change différents.

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File URL: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/docs/00/15/95/53/PDF/Mercosur_070507_AS.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by HAL in its series Post-Print with number halshs-00159553.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Publication status: Published, Revue de l'OFCE, 2007, avril, 101, 355-392
Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00159553

Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00159553/en/
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Keywords: Transmission ; chocs ; mécanismes d'ajustement ; Mercosur;

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  1. Andrew Berg & Eduardo Borensztein & Paolo Mauro, 2002. "An Evalution of Monetary Regime Options for Latin America," Working Papers 67, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
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  17. Sebastian Edwards, 1983. "LDC's Foreign Borrowing and Default Risk: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 1172, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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