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Testing for a Deterministic Trend when there is Evidence of Unit-Root

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  • Manuel Gomez

    ()
    (Department of Economics and Finance, Universidad de Guanajuato)

  • Daniel Ventosa-Santaularia

    ()
    (Department of Economics and Finance, Universidad de Guanajuato)

Abstract

Whilst the existence of a unit root implies that current shocks have permanent effects, in the long run, the simultaneous presence of a deterministic trend obliterates that consequence. As such, the long-run level of macroeconomic series depends upon the existence of a deterministic trend. This paper proposes a formal statistical procedure to distinguish between the null hypothesis of unit root and that of unit root with drift. Our procedure is asymptotically robust with regard to autocorrelation and takes into account a potential single structural break. Empirical results show that most of the macroeconomic time series originally analyzed by Nelson and Plosser (1982) are characterized by their containing both a deterministic and a stochastic trend.

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File URL: http://economia.ugto.org/WorkingPapers/EM200801.pdf
File Function: Revised version, 2010
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Universidad de Guanajuato, Department of Economics and Finance in its series Department of Economics and Finance Working Papers with number EM200801.

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Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2008
Date of revision: Jun 2010
Handle: RePEc:gua:wpaper:em200801

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Keywords: Unit Root; Deterministic Trend; Trend Regression; R2;

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  1. Peter C.B. Phillips & Steven N. Durlauf, 1985. "Multiple Time Series Regression with Integrated Processes," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 768, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  2. Manuel Gomez & Daniel Ventosa-Santaularia, 2007. "Income Convergence: The Dickey-Fuller Test under the Simultaneous Presence of Stochastic and Deterministic Trends," Department of Economics and Finance Working Papers EM200703, Universidad de Guanajuato, Department of Economics and Finance.
  3. Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  4. Eric Zivot & Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 944, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  5. Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre & Dukpa Kim & Pierre Perron, 2007. "GLS-based unit root tests with multiple structural breaks both under the null and the alternative hypotheses," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2008-019, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  6. Lawrence J. Christiano, 1988. "Searching For a Break in GNP," NBER Working Papers 2695, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
  8. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
  9. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 311-340, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Felipe J. Fonseca & Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària, 2011. "Revenue Elasticity of the Main federal Taxes in Mexico," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 48(1), pages 89-111.
  2. Víctor-Hugo Alcalá Ríos & Manuel Gómez Zaldívar & Daniel Ventosa-Santaulària, 2011. "Paradoja Feldstein-Horioka: el caso de México (1950-2007)," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 26(2), pages 293-313.
  3. Gomez Zaldivar, M. & Ventosa-Santaularia, D., 2009. "Bilateral Relationship between Consumption and GDP in Mexico and the USA: A Comment," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(1).
  4. Daniel Ventosa-santaulària & Manuel Gómez-zaldívar & Lizet A Pérez, 2013. "Long-run relationship with shifts between Mexican current account revenues and expenditures," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(2), pages 1317-1327.

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