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Disaggregate evidence on the persistence of consumer price inflation

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Todd E. Clark

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Abstract

This paper uses disaggregate inflation data spanning all of consumption to examine: (i) the persistence of disaggregate inflation relative to aggregate inflation; (ii) the distribution of persistence across consumption sectors; and (iii) whether persistence has changed. Assuming mean inflation to be unchanged within samples, the average persistence of disaggregate inflation is consistently below aggregate persistence. Taking into account an early 1990s shift in mean inflation identified by break tests—including tests applied to systems of disaggregate equations—yields much lower estimates of both aggregate and disaggregate persistence for 1984-02. But with the mean break taken into account, average disaggregate persistence is actually as great as aggregate inflation persistence. A factor model provides a natural framework for interpreting the relationship between aggregate and disaggregate persistence.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in its series Research Working Paper with number RWP 03-11.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedkrw:rwp03-11

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Keywords: Consumer price indexes;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Frédérick Demers & Annie De Champlain, 2005. "Forecasting Core Inflation in Canada: Should We Forecast the Aggregate or the Components?," Working Papers 05-44, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  2. Filippo Altissimo & Benoît Mojon & Paolo Zaffaroni, 2007. "Fast micro und slow macro: can aggregation explain the persistence of inflation?," Working Paper Series 729, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Simone Elmer & Thomas Maag, 2009. "The Persistence of Inflation in Switzerland: Evidence from Disaggregate Data," KOF Working papers 09-235, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich. [Downloadable!]
  4. Boivin, Jean & Giannoni, Marc & Mihov, Ilian, 2007. "Sticky Prices and Monetary Policy: Evidence from Disaggregated US Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 6101, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Laura Mayoral, 2009. "Heterogeneous dynamics, aggregation and the persistence of economic shocks," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 786.09, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC). [Downloadable!]
  6. Ian Babetskii & Fabrizio Coricelli & Roman Horváth, 2007. "Measuring and Explaining Inflation Persistence: Disaggregate Evidence on the Czech Republic," Working Papers IES 2007/22, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Aug 2007. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni & Ilian Mihov, 2007. "Sticky Prices and Monetary Policy: Evidence from Disaggregated U.S. Data," CFS Working Paper Series 2007/14, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
  8. Patrick Lünnemann & Thomas Y. Mathä, 2005. "Regulated and services’ prices and inflation persistence," Working Paper Series 466, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  9. Dixon, Huw & Kara, Engin, 2008. "Can we explain inflation persistence in a way that is consistent with the micro-evidence on nominal rigidity?," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2008/22, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section. [Downloadable!]
  10. Mario J. Crucini & Mototsugu Shintani & Takayuki Tsuruga, 2008. "Persistence in Law-Of-One-Price Deviations: Evidence from Micro-Data," Working Papers 0810, Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Mario J. Crucini & Mototsugu Shintani & Takayuki Tsuruga, 2008. "Accounting for persistence and volatility of good-level real exchange rates: the role of sticky information," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 07, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
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  12. James Yetman, 2009. "Hong Kong Consumer Prices are Flexible," Working Papers 052009, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
  13. Babecký, Jan & Coricelli, Fabrizio & Horváth, Roman, 2009. "Assessing Inflation Persistence: Micro Evidence on an Inflation Targeting Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 7268, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Rafal Raciborski, 2008. "Searching for additional sources of inflation persistence : the micro-price panel data approach," Research series 200804-04, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  15. Gregory Gadzinski & Fabrice Orlandi, 2004. "Inflation persistence in the European Union, the euro area, and the United States," Working Paper Series 414, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  16. O'Reilly, Gerard & Whelan, Karl, 2005. "Testing Parameter Stability: A Wild Bootstrap Approach," Research Technical Papers 8/RT/05, Central Bank & Financial Services Authority of Ireland (CBFSAI). [Downloadable!]
  17. Huw Dixon & Engin Kara, 2006. "Understanding inflation persistence - a comparison of different models," Working Paper Series 672, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  18. Patrick Lünnemann & Thomas Y. Mathä, 2005. "Nominal rigidities and inflation persistence in Luxembourg: a comparison with EU 15 member countries with particular focus on services and regulated prices," BCL working papers cahier_etude_14, Central Bank of Luxembourg. [Downloadable!]
  19. Sofiane H. Sekioua, 2004. "Real interest parity (RIP) over the 20th century: New evidence based on confidence intervals for the dominant root and half-lives of shocks," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 91, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  20. Todd E. Clark, 2006. "Disaggregate evidence on the persistence of consumer price inflation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(5), pages 563-587. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  21. Patrick Lünnemann & Thomas Y. Mathä, 2004. "Inflation Persistence In Luxembourg A Comparison With Eu15 Countries At The Disaggregate Level," BCL working papers cahier_etude_12, Central Bank of Luxembourg. [Downloadable!]
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