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Spurious Break

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Author Info
Nunes, Luis C.
Kuan, Chung-Ming
Newbold, Paul

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Abstract

A quasi-maximum likelihood estimator of the break date is analyzed. Consistency of the estimator is demonstrated under very general conditions, provided that the data-generating process is not integrated. However, the asymptotic distribution of the estimator is quite different for time series that are integrated of order one. In that case, when there is no break, the analyst can be spuriously led to the estimation of a break near the middle of the time series.

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File URL: http://journals.cambridge.org/abstract_S0266466600009713
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Cambridge University Press in its journal Econometric Theory.

Volume (Year): 11 (1995)
Issue (Month): 04 (August)
Pages: 736-749
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:cup:etheor:v:11:y:1995:i:04:p:736-749_00

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  2. Filippo Altissimo & Valentina Corradi, 2000. "Strong Rules for Detecting the Number of Breaks in a Time Series," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0574, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Clive W.J. Granger & Namwon Hyung, 1999. "Occasional Structural Breaks and Long Memory," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 99-14, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Peter C.B. Phillips, 2004. "Challenges of Trending Time Series Econometrics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1472, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Laura Mayoral, 2005. "Is the observed persistence spurious? A test for fractional integration versus short memory and structural breaks," Economics Working Papers 956, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
  8. Ted Juhl, 2004. "A nonparametric adjustment for tests of changing mean," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 3(34), pages 1-11. [Downloadable!]
  9. Todd E. Clark, 2003. "Disaggregate evidence on the persistence of consumer price inflation," Research Working Paper RWP 03-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
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