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Interactions between the Seasonal and Business Cycles in Production and Inventories

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Author Info
Cecchetti, Stephen G
Kashyap, Anil K
Wilcox, David W

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Abstract

This paper shows that, in several U.S. manufacturing industries, the seasonal variability of production and inventories varied with the state of the business cycle. The authors present a simple model which implies that, if firms reduce the seasonal variability of their production as the economy strengthens and they either hold constant or increase the stock of inventories they bring into the high-production seasons of the year, then they must be facing upward-sloping and convex marginal cost curves. The authors conclude that firms in a number of industries face upward-sloping and convex marginal-production-cost curves. Copyright 1997 by American Economic Association.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 87 (1997)
Issue (Month): 5 (December)
Pages: 884-92
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Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:87:y:1997:i:5:p:884-92

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  1. van Dijk, Dick & Strikholm, Birgit & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2001. "The effects of institutional and technological change and business cycle fluctuations on seasonal patterns in quarterly industrial production series," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 0429, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 16 May 2002. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Guido de Blasio & Federico Mini, 2001. "Seasonality and Capacity: an Application to Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 403, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  3. Lumsdaine, Robin L. & Prasad, Eswar S., 2002. "Identifying the Common Component of International Economic Fluctuations: A New Approach," IZA Discussion Papers 487, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  4. Pami Dua & Lokendra Kumawat, 2007. "Modelling Seasonal Dynamics in Indian Industrial Production--An Extention of TV-STAR Model," Working papers 162, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Lawrence J. Christiano & Richard M. Todd, 2000. "The Conventional Treatment of Seasonality in Business Cycle Analysis: Does it Create Distortions?," NBER Technical Working Papers 0266, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. D R Osborn & A Matas-Mir, 2001. "Does Seasonality Change over the Business Cycle? An Investigation using Monthly Industrial Production Series," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 09, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
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  7. D R Osborn & A Matas-Mir, 2003. "The Extent of Seasonal/Business Cycle Interactions in European Industrial Production," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 38, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
  8. Pami Dua & Lokendra Kumawat, 2005. "Modelling and Forecasting Seasonality in Indian Macroeconomic Time Series," Working papers 136, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. Siem Jan Koopman & Kai Ming Lee, 2008. "Seasonality with Trend and Cycle Interactions in Unobserved Components Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-028/4, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
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