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Interest-Rate Arbitrage in Currency Baskets: Forecasting Weights and Measuring Risk

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Author Info
Christoffersen, Peter F
Giorgianni, Lorenzo

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Abstract

We use a time series modeling approach to address two related questions of interest to foreign-exchange market participants and policy makers dealing with basket currencies. First, how are unknown weights appropriately extracted from basket currencies? Second, how does one correctly account for the risk--in terms of conditional variance of expected profits--that time-varying weights add to the standard basket-hedge position? We suggest a methodology that can provide answers to these questions and apply it to the heavily traded Thai baht currency basket.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Statistical Association in its journal Journal of Business and Economic Statistics.

Volume (Year): 18 (2000)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Pages: 242-53
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Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:18:y:2000:i:2:p:242-53

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  1. Karel Mertens, 2006. "How the Removal of Deposit Rate Ceilings Has Changed Monetary Transmission in the US: Theory and Evidence," Economics Working Papers ECO2006/34, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
  2. Carsten Trenkler & Pentti Saikkonen & Helmut Luetkepohl, 2006. "Testing for the Cointegrating Rank of a VAR Process with Level Shift and Trend Break," Economics Working Papers ECO2006/29, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Robin L. Lumsdaine & Eswar S. Prasad, 2003. "Identifying the Common Component of International Economic Fluctuations: A New Approach," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(484), pages 101-127, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. C. Trenkler, . "The Polish Crawling Peg System: A Cointegration Analysis," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 2000-71, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
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This page was last updated on 2009-11-22.


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