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The (Un-) Stable Relationship between The Exchange rate and its Fundamentals

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Author Info
Carlo Altavilla

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Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between the euro-dollar exchange rate and its underlying fundamentals by adopting non-linear time series modelling. We found that this relationship is episodically unstable. We also found that an equilibrium-distorting shock is likely to have a greater effect on the exchange rate during periods when the deviation between exchange rate and fundamentals is large; as a consequence, when the exchange rate is close to its equilibrium value it tends to be less sensitive to any shocks in the fundamentals.

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Paper provided by D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy in its series Discussion Papers with number 6_2006.

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Date of creation: 15 Mar 2006
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Handle: RePEc:prt:dpaper:6_2006

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Related research
Keywords: Non-linearity Markov-switching Model Fundamentals

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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  1. Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P., 2003. "Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 85-107, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Mark P. Taylor, 2005. "Official Foreign Exchange Intervention As A Coordinating Signal In The Dollar-Yen Market," Pacific Economic Review, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 10(1), pages 73-82, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Sarantis, Nicholas, 1999. "Modeling non-linearities in real effective exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 27-45, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Michael, Panos & Nobay, A Robert & Peel, David A, 1997. "Transactions Costs and Nonlinear Adjustment in Real Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 862-79, August.
  5. Baillie, Richard T. & Pecchenino, Rowena A., 1991. "The search for equilibrium relationships in international finance: the case of the monetary model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 582-593, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Baillie, Richard T. & Selover, David D., 1987. "Cointegration and models of exchange rate determination," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 43-51. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. McNown, Robert & Wallace, Myles S, 1994. "Cointegration Tests of the Monetary Exchange Rate Model for Three High-Inflation Economies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(3), pages 396-411, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Sarno, Lucio, 2000. "Real exchange rate behavior in the Middle East: a re-examination," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 127-136, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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