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Exchange Rates, Innovations and Forecasting

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  • Wolff, Christian C

Abstract

In this paper an ex-post forecasting experiment is performed on the basis of a version of the "news" model of exchange rate determination. A general finding is that the "news" formulation of monetary exchange rate models leads to relatively accurate ex post exchange rate forecasts. Often the results compare favourably with those obtained from the naive random walk forecasting rule. Thus, the evidence presented in this paper supports the argument that the 1983 finding by Meese and Rogoff (that structural models do not even outperform the random walk in an ex post forecasting experiment) may be due to the fact that the models were not properly tested in a "news" framework.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 188.

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Date of creation: May 1987
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:188

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Related research

Keywords: Exchange Rates; Forecasting; News; Random Walk;

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References

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  1. Frenkel, Jacob A, 1976. " A Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Doctrinal Aspects and Empirical Evidence," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 200-224.
  2. Kenneth W. Clements & Jacob A. Frenkel, 1980. "Exchange Rates, Money and Relative Prices: The Dollar-Pound in the 1920's," NBER Working Papers 0429, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Frenkel, Jacob A & Mussa, Michael L, 1980. "The Efficiency of Foreign Exchange Markets and Measures of Turbulence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(2), pages 374-81, May.
  4. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-53, October.
  5. R. Dornbusch, 1975. "The Theory of Flexible Exchange Rate Regimes and Macroeconomic Policy," Working papers 165, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  6. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584.
  7. Wolff, Christian C. P., 1986. "Exchange rate models and innovations : A derivation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 373-376.
  8. John F. O. Bilson & Richard C. Marston, 1984. "Exchange Rate Theory and Practice," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bils84-1.
  9. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
  10. Lothian, James R., 1986. "Real dollar exchange rate under the Bretton-Woods and floating exchange-rate regimes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 429-448, December.
  11. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
  12. Hsieh, David A., 1984. "Tests of rational expectations and no risk premium in forward exchange markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 173-184, August.
  13. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
  14. Finn, Mary G., 1986. "Forecasting the exchange rate: A monetary or random walk phenomenon?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 181-193, June.
  15. Mussa, Michael, 1979. "Empirical regularities in the behavior of exchange rates and theories of the foreign exchange market," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 9-57, January.
  16. Hans Genberg, 1984. "Properties of Innovations in Spot and Forward Exchange Rates and the Role of Money Supply Processes," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, pages 153-174 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Somanath, V. S., 1986. "Efficient exchange rate forecasts: Lagged models better than the random walk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 195-220, June.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Lucio Sarno & Giorgio Valente & Mark E. Wohar, 2004. "Monetary Fundamentals and Exchange Rate Dynamics under Different Nominal Regimes," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(2), pages 179-193, April.
  2. Christopher J. Neely & Lucio Sarno, 2002. "How well do monetary fundamentals forecast exchange rates?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 51-74.
  3. van Tol, Michel R & Wolff, Christian C, 2005. "Forecasting the Spot Exchange Rate with the Term Structure of Forward Premia: Multivariate Threshold Cointegration," CEPR Discussion Papers 4958, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Francis Vitek, 2005. "The Exchange Rate Forecasting Puzzle," International Finance 0509005, EconWPA.
  5. Wolff, Christian C.P., 1989. "Exchange rate models and parameter variation: The case of the dollar-mark exchange rate," Open Access publications from Maastricht University urn:nbn:nl:ui:27-13902, Maastricht University.

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