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Exchange Rates, Innovations and Forecasting

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  • Wolff, Christian C

Abstract

In this paper an ex-post forecasting experiment is performed on the basis of a version of the "news" model of exchange rate determination. A general finding is that the "news" formulation of monetary exchange rate models leads to relatively accurate ex post exchange rate forecasts. Often the results compare favourably with those obtained from the naive random walk forecasting rule. Thus, the evidence presented in this paper supports the argument that the 1983 finding by Meese and Rogoff (that structural models do not even outperform the random walk in an ex post forecasting experiment) may be due to the fact that the models were not properly tested in a "news" framework.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 188.

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Date of creation: May 1987
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:188

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Related research

Keywords: Exchange Rates; Forecasting; News; Random Walk;

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Cited by:
  1. Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio & Wohar, Mark E, 2003. "Monetary Fundamentals and Exchange Rate Dynamics under Different Nominal Regimes," CEPR Discussion Papers 3983, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Christopher J. Neely & Lucio Sarno, 2002. "How well do monetary fundamentals forecast exchange rates?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 51-74.
  3. Coppes, Robert Christophor & Stokking, Evert Jan, 1996. "Credit risk exposure with interest and currency swaps," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 338-345, June.
  4. Madura, Jeff & Martin, A. D. & Wiley, Marilyn, 1999. "Forecast bias and accuracy of exchange rates in emerging markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 27-43, January.
  5. Mehran, Jamshid & Shahrokhi, Manuchehr, 1997. "An application of four foreign currency forecasting models to the U.S. dollar and Mexican peso," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 211-220.
  6. Francis Vitek, 2005. "The Exchange Rate Forecasting Puzzle," International Finance 0509005, EconWPA.
  7. Nieh, Chien-Chung & Lee, Cheng-Few, 2001. "Dynamic relationship between stock prices and exchange rates for G-7 countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 477-490.
  8. Cavaglia, Stefano M. F. G. & Wolff, Christian C. P., 1996. "A note on the determinants of unexpected exchange rate movements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 179-188, January.
  9. van Tol, Michel R & Wolff, Christian C, 2005. "Forecasting the Spot Exchange Rate with the Term Structure of Forward Premia: Multivariate Threshold Cointegration," CEPR Discussion Papers 4958, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Phylaktis, Kate & Ravazzolo, Fabiola, 2005. "Stock prices and exchange rate dynamics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1031-1053, November.

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