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Excess Volatility of Exchange Rates with Unobservable Fundamentals

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  • Leonardo Bartolini
  • Lorenzo Giorgianni

Abstract

The authors present tests of excess volatility of exchange rates which impose minimal structure on the data and do not commit to a choice of exchange rate “fundamentals.” The method builds on existing volatility tests of asset prices, combining them with a procedure that extracts unobservable fundamentals from survey‐based exchange rate expectations. The method is applied to data for the three major exchange rates since 1984, and broad evidence is given of excess volatility with respect to the predictions of the canonical asset‐pricing model of the exchange rate with rational expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Leonardo Bartolini & Lorenzo Giorgianni, 2001. "Excess Volatility of Exchange Rates with Unobservable Fundamentals," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 518-530, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:9:y:2001:i:3:p:518-530
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-9396.00297
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    2. Johnson, Christian A., 2001. "Un modelo de intervención cambiaria," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 0(271), pages 339-367, julio-sep.
    3. Lansing, Kevin J. & Ma, Jun, 2017. "Explaining exchange rate anomalies in a model with Taylor-rule fundamentals and consistent expectations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 62-87.

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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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