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Are exchange rates excessively volatile? And what does "excessively volatile" mean, anyway?

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Author Info
Leonardo Bartolini
Gordon M. Bodnar

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Abstract

Using data for the major currencies from 1973 to 1994, we apply recent tests of asset price volatility to reexamine whether exchange rates have been "excessively" volatile with respect to the predictions of the monetary model of the exchange rate and of standard extensions that allow for sticky prices, sluggish money adjustment, and time-varying risk premia. Consistent with previous evidence from regression-based tests, most of the models that we examine are rejected by our volatility-based tests. In general, however, we find that exchange rates have not been excessively volatile relative to movements of their determinants, with respect to the predictions of even the most restrictive version of the monetary model. Alternative measures of volatility, however, may disguise the cause of rejection as excessive exchange rate volatility.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its series Research Paper with number 9601.

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Date of creation: 1996
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednrp:9601

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Keywords: Foreign exchange rates;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  4. Eichengreen, Barry & Tobin, James & Wyplosz, Charles, 1995. "Two Cases for Sand in the Wheels of International Finance," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(428), pages 162-72, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Kleidon, Allan W, 1986. "Variance Bounds Tests and Stock Price Valuation Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 953-1001, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. N. Gregory Mankiw & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1985. "Do We Reject Too Often? Small Sample Bias in Tests of Rational Expectations," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 743, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Shapiro, Matthew D, 1985. " An Unbiased Reexamination of Stock Market Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 677-87, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Shapiro, Matthew D, 1991. "Stock Market Forecastability and Volatility: A Statistical Appraisal," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(3), pages 455-77, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Vander Kraats, R.H. & Booth, L.D., 1983. "Empirical tests of the monetary approach to exchange-rate determination," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 255-278, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-36, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Huang, Roger D, 1981. "The Monetary Approach to Exchange Rate in an Efficient Foreign Exchange Market: Tests Based on Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(1), pages 31-41, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Fayolle, J. & Micolet, P-E., 1998. "Cycles internationaux et européens: éléments pour une problématique appliquée," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 1998-01, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE). [Downloadable!]
  2. Heinemann, Friedrich, 1998. "Die Theorie der optimalen Währungsräume und die politische Reformfähigkeit : ein vernachlässigtes Kriterium," ZEW Discussion Papers 98-02, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  3. Victoria Saporta & Kamhon Kan, . "The effects of Stamp Duty on the Level and Volatility of Equity Prices," Bank of England working papers 71, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  4. Michael W. Brandt & Pedro Santa-Clara, 2001. "Simulated Likelihood Estimation of Diffusions with an Application to Exchange Rate Dynamics in Incomplete Markets," NBER Technical Working Papers 0274, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Ketil Hviding & M. Nowak & Luca Antonio Ricci, 2004. "Can Higher Reserves Help Reduce Exchange Rate Volatility?," IMF Working Papers 04/189, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  6. Jocelyn Horne, 2001. "Myths and Misconceptions of Exchange Rates," Research Papers 0105, Macquarie University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Jerome Creel & Henri Sterdyniak, 1998. "Discussing Euro Volatility," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 1998-03, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE). [Downloadable!]
  8. George Furstenberg, 1998. "From Worldwide Capital Mobility to International Financial Integration: A Review Essay," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 53-84, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Vincent Brousseau & Fabio Scacciavillani, 1999. "A global hazard index for the world foreign exchange markets," Working Paper Series 1, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  10. W A Razzak & Thomas Grennes, 1998. "The long-run nominal exchange rate: specification and estimation issues," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G98/5, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
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