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A dynamic mathematical test of international property securities bubbles and crashes

Author

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  • Hui, Eddie C.M.
  • Zheng, Xian
  • Wang, Hui

Abstract

This study investigates property securities bubbles and crashes by using a dynamic mathematical methodology developed from the previous research (Watanabe et al. 2007a, b [31,32]). The improved model is used to detect the bubble and crash periods in five international countries/cities (namely, United States, United Kingdom, Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore) from Jan, 2000 to Oct, 2008. By this model definition, we are able to detect the beginning of each bubble period even before it bursts. Meanwhile, the empirical results show that most of property securities markets experienced bubble periods between 2003 and 2007, and crashes happened in Apr 2008 triggered by the Subprime Mortgage Crisis of US. In contrast, Japan suffered the shortest bubble period and no evidence has documented the existence of crash there.

Suggested Citation

  • Hui, Eddie C.M. & Zheng, Xian & Wang, Hui, 2010. "A dynamic mathematical test of international property securities bubbles and crashes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(7), pages 1445-1454.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:389:y:2010:i:7:p:1445-1454
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2009.12.007
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Wei, Yigang & Li, Yan & Wang, Zhicheng, 2022. "Multiple price bubbles in global major emission trading schemes: Evidence from European Union, New Zealand, South Korea and China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    2. Marcelo M. de Oliveira & Alexandre C. L. Almeida, 2014. "Testing for rational speculative bubbles in the Brazilian residential real-estate market," Papers 1401.7615, arXiv.org.
    3. Hui, Eddie Chi-Man & Wang, Ziyou, 2015. "Can we predict the property cycle? A study of securitized property market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 426(C), pages 72-87.
    4. Eddie Chi-man Hui & Xian Zheng & Hui Wang, 2013. "Investor sentiment and risk appetite of real estate security market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(19), pages 2801-2807, July.

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