Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

House Prices and Bubbles in New Zealand

Contents:

Author Info

  • Patricia Fraser

    (University of Aberdeen Business School)

  • Martin Hoesli

    (University of Geneva, HEC, Swiss Finance Institute and University of Aberdeen Business School)

  • Lynn Mc Alevey

    (University of Otago, Department of Finance and Quantitative Analysis)

Abstract

This paper studies actual (real) house prices relative to fundamental (real) house values in New Zealand for the period 1970-2005. We find disparities between actual and fundamental house prices in the early 1970s and 1980s and from 2000 to date. These deviations are found to be substantially more pronounced than for New Zealand stocks. Contrary to the results that have been reported for many other countries, however, there is no evidence of a deviation in the latter part of the 1980s. Finally,we find that the current deviation of house prices from fundamentals is due to price dynamics rather than an overreaction to fundamentals.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=940387
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Swiss Finance Institute in its series Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series with number 06-20.

as in new window
Length: 38 pages
Date of creation:
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp0620

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.SwissFinanceInstitute.ch
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: real house prices; real disposable income; fundamentals; present value; time-varying risk; bubbles; New Zealand.;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals, and Misperceptions," NBER Working Papers 11643, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 1999. "A Unified Theory of Underreaction, Momentum Trading, and Overreaction in Asset Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(6), pages 2143-2184, December.
  3. Andrew B. Abel, 1991. "The equity premium puzzle," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Sep, pages 3-14.
  4. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 2003. "Is There a Bubble in the Housing Market?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 299-362.
  5. Levin, Eric J. & Wright, Robert E., 1997. "The impact of speculation on house prices in the United Kingdom," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 567-585, October.
  6. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller & John M. Quigley, 2001. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market Versus the Housing Market," NBER Working Papers 8606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1987. "The Economic Consequences of Noise Traders," NBER Working Papers 2395, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-88, October.
  9. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-35, November.
  10. Kent Daniel & David Hirshleifer & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 1998. "Investor Psychology and Security Market Under- and Overreactions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(6), pages 1839-1885, December.
  11. Angela Black & Patricia Fraser & Nicolaas Groenewold, 2001. "How Big is the Speculative Component in Australian Share Prices?," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 01-14, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  12. Youguo Liang & Arjun Chatrath & Willard McIntosh, 1996. "Apartment REITs and Apartment Real Estate," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 11(3), pages 277-290.
  13. Weimin Lui & Norman Strong & Xinzhong Xu, 1999. "The Profitability of Momentum Investing," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(9-10), pages 1043-1091.
  14. Kenneth A. Froot & Maurice Obstfeld, 1992. "Intrinsic Bubbles: The Case of Stock Prices," NBER Working Papers 3091, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Iris Claus & Grant Scobie, 2001. "Household Net Wealth: An International Comparison," Treasury Working Paper Series 01/19, New Zealand Treasury.
  16. Dennis R. Capozza & Patric H. Hendershott & Charlotte Mack, 2004. "An Anatomy of Price Dynamics in Illiquid Markets: Analysis and Evidence from Local Housing Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 32(1), pages 1-32, 03.
  17. Merton, Robert C., 1980. "On estimating the expected return on the market : An exploratory investigation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 323-361, December.
  18. Clive Thorp & Bun Ung, 2001. "Recent trends in household financial assets and liabilities," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 64, June.
  19. William N. Goetzmann & Roger G. Ibbotson, 1990. "The Performance Of Real Estate As An Asset Class," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 3(1), pages 65-76.
  20. Chan, Hing Lin & Lee, Shu Kam & Woo, Kai Yin, 2001. "Detecting rational bubbles in the residential housing markets of Hong Kong," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 61-73, January.
  21. Roche, Maurice J., 2001. "The rise in house prices in Dublin: bubble, fad or just fundamentals," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 281-295, April.
  22. Englund, Peter & Hwang, Min & Quigley, John M, 2002. "Hedging Housing Risk," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 24(1-2), pages 167-200, Jan.-Marc.
  23. Diba, Behzad T & Grossman, Herschel I, 1988. "Explosive Rational Bubbles in Stock Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 520-30, June.
  24. Nicholas Barberis & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1997. "A Model of Investor Sentiment," NBER Working Papers 5926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Juan Ayuso & Fernando Restoy, 2003. "House prices and rents: an equilibrium asset pricing approach," Banco de España Working Papers 0304, Banco de España.
  26. Gishan Dissanaike, 1997. "Do Stock Market Investors Overreact?," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 27-50.
  27. Glenn Boyle, 2005. "Risk, expected return, and the cost of equity capital," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 39(2), pages 181-194.
  28. John D. Benjamin & Peter Chinloy & G. Donald Jud, 2004. "Real Estate Versus Financial Wealth in Consumption," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 341-354, November.
  29. Robert J. Shiller, 1984. "Stock Prices and Social Dynamics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 719R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  30. William C. Hunter & Lucy F. Ackert, 1999. "Intrinsic Bubbles: The Case of Stock Prices: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1372-1376, December.
  31. Angela Black & Patricia Fraser & Martin Hoesli, 2006. "House Prices, Fundamentals and Bubbles," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(9-10), pages 1535-1555.
  32. Marjorie Flavin & Takashi Yamashita, 2002. "Owner-Occupied Housing and the Composition of the Household Portfolio," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 345-362, March.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Jean-Pierre Andre, 2011. "Economic Imbalances: New Zealand's Structural Challenge," Treasury Working Paper Series 11/03, New Zealand Treasury.
  2. Chen, Pei-Fen & Chien, Mei-Se & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2011. "Dynamic modeling of regional house price diffusion in Taiwan," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 315-332.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp0620

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marilyn Barja).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.