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An empirical examination of the price-dividend relation with dividend management

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Author Info
Lucy F. Ackert
William C. Hunter

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Abstract

Some recent empirical evidence suggests that stock prices are not properly modelled as the present discounted value of expected dividends. In this paper we estimate a present value model of stock price that is capable of explaining the observed long-term trends in stock prices. The model recognizes that firm managers control cash dividend payments. The model estimates indicate that stock price movements may be explained by managerial behavior.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in its series Working Paper Series with number WP-00-22.

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Date of creation: 2000
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-00-22

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Keywords: Stocks ; Stock market;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
  3. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Pok-sang Lam & Nelson C. Mark, 1990. "Mean Reversion in Equilibrium Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 2762, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Kleidon, Allan W, 1986. "Variance Bounds Tests and Stock Price Valuation Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 953-1001, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Marsh, Terry A & Merton, Robert C, 1986. "Dividend Variability and Variance Bounds Tests for the Rationality ofStock Market Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(3), pages 483-98, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Joe Mattey & Richard Meese, 1986. "Empirical assessment of present value relations," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 5(2), pages 171-234. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Bagwell, Laurie Simon & Shoven, John B, 1989. "Cash Distributions to Shareholders," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 129-40, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Bentolila, Samuel & Bertola, Giuseppe, 1990. "Firing Costs and Labour Demand: How Bad Is Eurosclerosis?," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 57(3), pages 381-402, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Fudenberg, Drew & Tirole, Jean, 1995. "A Theory of Income and Dividend Smoothing Based on Incumbency Rents," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(1), pages 75-93, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Lee, Bong-Soo, 1996. "Time-Series Implications of Aggregate Dividend Behavior," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(2), pages 589-618. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Froot, Kenneth A & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991. "Intrinsic Bubbles: The Case of Stock Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1189-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Flood, Robert P & Hodrick, Robert J, 1990. "On Testing for Speculative Bubbles," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 85-101, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Ackert, Lucy F & Smith, Brian F, 1993. " Stock Price Volatility, Ordinary Dividends, and Other Cash Flows to Shareholders," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1147-60, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Camerer, Colin, 1989. " Bubbles and Fads in Asset Prices," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 3(1), pages 3-41.
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  22. West, Kenneth D, 1988. " Bubbles, Fads and Stock Price Volatility Tests: A Partial Evaluation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 639-56, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. Paul A. Samuelson, 1973. "Proof That Properly Discounted Present Values of Assets Vibrate Randomly," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 4(2), pages 369-374, Autumn. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-36, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  25. Pettit, R Richardson, 1972. "Dividend Announcements, Security Performance, and Capital Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 27(5), pages 993-1007, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
  27. Donaldson, R.G. & Kamstra, M., 1996. "Forecasting Fundamental Asset Return Distributions and Tests for Excess Volatility and Bubbles," Discussion Papers dp96-02, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
  28. repec:fth:simfra:96-02 is not listed on IDEAS
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  32. Marsh, Terry A & Merton, Robert C, 1987. "Dividend Behavior for the Aggregate Stock Market," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(1), pages 1-40, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  33. Bruce N. Lehmann, 1990. "Fads, Martingales, and Market Efficiency," NBER Working Papers 2533, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  34. Fama, Eugene F, 1991. " Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-617, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jacob Madsen & Costas Milas, 2003. "The Price-Dividend Relationship in Inflationary and Deflationary Regimes," City University Economics Discussion Papers 03/05, Department of Economics, City University, London. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Anne Vila Wetherilt & Simon Wells, . "Long-horizon equity return predictability: some new evidence for the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 244, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
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