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The price-dividend relationship in inflationary and deflationary regimes

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  • Madsen, J. B.
  • Milas, C.

Abstract

This paper suggests that dividends do not reflect permanent earnings of corporations in periods of high inflation and deflation, and therefore the price-dividend relationship, as predicted by Gordon’s dividend-price model, breaks down. Using data for the US and the UK over the period from 1871 to 2002, nonlinear estimates support the prediction of the model.

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File URL: http://openaccess.city.ac.uk/1419/1/0305_madsen%2Dmilas.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, City University London in its series Working Papers with number 03/05.

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Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cty:dpaper:03/05

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Postal: Department of Economics, Social Sciences Building, City University London, Whiskin Street, London, EC1R 0JD, United Kingdom,
Phone: +44 (0)20 7040 8500
Web page: http://www.city.ac.uk
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Related research

Keywords: Regime-switching; nonlinearity; price-dividend relationship; inflation and deflation;

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References

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  1. Lucy F. Ackert & William C. Hunter, 2000. "An empirical examination of the price-dividend relation with dividend management," Working Paper Series WP-00-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  2. John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1995. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," NBER Working Papers 4995, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Robert B. Barsky & J. Bradford De Long, 1992. "Why Does the Stock Market Fluctuate?," NBER Working Papers 3995, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Roni Michaely & Richard H. Thaler & Kent Womack, 1994. "Price Reactions to Dividend Initiations and Omissions: Overreaction or Drift?," NBER Working Papers 4778, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Mick Silver & Christos Ioannidis, 2001. "Intercountry Differences in the Relationship between Relative Price Variability and Average Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(2), pages 355-374, April.
  6. Jakob B Madsen & E Philip Davis, 2006. "Equity Prices, Productivity Growth and 'The New Economy'," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(513), pages 791-811, 07.
  7. van Dijk, D.J.C. & Terasvirta, T. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2000. "Smooth transition autoregressive models - A survey of recent developments," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2000-23/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  8. Grossman, Richard S., 2002. "New Indices Of British Equity Prices, 1870 1913," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 62(01), pages 121-146, March.
  9. Jansen, Eilev S & Terasvirta, Timo, 1996. "Testing Parameter Constancy and Super Exogeneity in Econometric Equations," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(4), pages 735-63, November.
  10. Friedman, Milton, 1977. "Nobel Lecture: Inflation and Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 451-72, June.
  11. Lucy F. Ackert & William C. Hunter, 1999. "Intrinsic bubbles: the case of stock prices: a comment," Working Paper Series WP-99-26, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  12. Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-65, September.
  13. DeAngelo, Harry & DeAngelo, Linda & Skinner, Douglas J, 1992. " Dividends and Losses," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1837-63, December.
  14. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-34, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Pierre Giot & Mikael Petitjean, 2009. "Short-term market timing using the bond-equity yield ratio," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 365-384.
  2. Nagayasu, Jun, 2007. "Putting the dividend-price ratio under the microscope," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 186-195, September.
  3. GIOT, Pierre & PETITJEAN, Mikael, 2006. "The information content of the Bond-Equity Yield Ratio: better than a random walk?," CORE Discussion Papers 2006089, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  4. Coakley, Jerry & Fuertes, Ana-Maria, 2006. "Valuation ratios and price deviations from fundamentals," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 2325-2346, August.

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