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Intrinsic Bubbles: The Case of Stock Prices: Comment

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  • William C. Hunter
  • Lucy F. Ackert

Abstract

Some recent empirical evidence suggests that stock prices are not properly modelled as the present discounted value of expected dividends and that empirical models incorporating nonlinear bubble components better fit the data. In this paper we show that the nonlinearity in the relationship between prices and dividends may arise from how managers choose dividend payout. In particular, we propose a model of managed dividends which can explain observed long-term trends in stock prices. This model of managed dividends is shown to be observationally equivalent to the popular intrinsic bubbles model.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

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File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.89.5.1372
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 89 (1999)
Issue (Month): 5 (December)
Pages: 1372-1376

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Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:89:y:1999:i:5:p:1372-1376

Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.89.5.1372
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References

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  1. Ackert, Lucy F & Smith, Brian F, 1993. " Stock Price Volatility, Ordinary Dividends, and Other Cash Flows to Shareholders," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1147-60, September.
  2. Fudenberg, Drew & Tirole, Jean, 1995. "A Theory of Income and Dividend Smoothing Based on Incumbency Rents," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(1), pages 75-93, February.
  3. Bentolila, Samuel & Bertola, Giuseppe, 1990. "Firing Costs and Labour Demand: How Bad Is Eurosclerosis?," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(3), pages 381-402, July.
  4. Driffill, John & Sola, Martin, 1998. "Intrinsic bubbles and regime-switching," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 357-373, July.
  5. Lucy Ackert & William Hunter, 2001. "An Empirical Examination of the Price-Dividend Relation with Dividend Management," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 115-129, April.
  6. Robert J. Shiller, 1984. "Stock Prices and Social Dynamics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 719R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  7. Robert J. Shiller, 1984. "Stock Prices and Social Dynamics," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 15(2), pages 457-510.
  8. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1992. "An Interpretation of Recent Research on Exchange Rate Target Zones," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 119-144, Fall.
  9. Kenneth A. Froot & Maurice Obstfeld, 1989. "Intrinsic Bubbles: The Case of Stock Prices," NBER Working Papers 3091, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Obstfeld, Maurice & Stockman, Alan C., 1985. "Exchange-rate dynamics," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 917-977 Elsevier.
  11. Pettit, R Richardson, 1972. "Dividend Announcements, Security Performance, and Capital Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 27(5), pages 993-1007, December.
  12. Marsh, Terry A & Merton, Robert C, 1986. "Dividend Variability and Variance Bounds Tests for the Rationality ofStock Market Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(3), pages 483-98, June.
  13. Krugman, Paul R, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(3), pages 669-82, August.
  14. Merton H. Miller & Franco Modigliani, 1961. "Dividend Policy, Growth, and the Valuation of Shares," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34, pages 411.
  15. Marsh, Terry A & Merton, Robert C, 1987. "Dividend Behavior for the Aggregate Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(1), pages 1-40, January.
  16. Bagwell, Laurie Simon & Shoven, John B, 1989. "Cash Distributions to Shareholders," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 129-40, Summer.
  17. Watts, Ross, 1973. "The Information Content of Dividends," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 46(2), pages 191-211, April.
  18. Lee, Bong-Soo, 1996. "Time-Series Implications of Aggregate Dividend Behavior," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(2), pages 589-618.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Black, Angela & Fraser, Patricia & Groenewold, Nicolaas, 2003. "U.S. stock prices and macroeconomic fundamentals," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 345-367.
  2. Madsen, Jakob B. & Milas, Costas, 2005. "The price-dividend relationship in inflationary and deflationary regimes," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 260-269, December.
  3. GIOT, Pierre & PETITJEAN, Mikael, 2006. "Short-term market timing using the Bond-Equity Yield Ratio," CORE Discussion Papers 2006090, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  4. Lucy Ackert & William Hunter, 2001. "An Empirical Examination of the Price-Dividend Relation with Dividend Management," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 115-129, April.
  5. Black, Angela & Fraser, Patricia & Groenewold, Nicolaas, 2003. "How big is the speculative component in Australian share prices?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 177-195.
  6. Patricia Fraser & Martin Hoesli & Lynn McAlevey, 2008. "House Prices and Bubbles in New Zealand," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 37(1), pages 71-91, July.
  7. Taipalus, Katja, 2012. "Detecting asset price bubbles with time-series methods," Scientific Monographs E:47/2012, Bank of Finland.
  8. Coakley, Jerry & Fuertes, Ana-Maria, 2006. "Valuation ratios and price deviations from fundamentals," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 2325-2346, August.
  9. GIOT, Pierre & PETITJEAN, Mikael, 2006. "The information content of the Bond-Equity Yield Ratio: better than a random walk?," CORE Discussion Papers 2006089, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  10. Pan, Ming-Shiun, 2007. "Permanent and transitory components of earnings, dividends, and stock prices," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(4), pages 535-549, September.

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