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The price-dividend relationship in inflationary and deflationary regimes

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  • Madsen, Jakob B.
  • Milas, Costas

Abstract

This paper argues that the linear price- dividend relationship as predicted in the Gordon (1962) model breaks down in regimes of high inflation and deflation. Using data for the US and the UK over the period from 1871 to 2002, nonlinear estimates support the prediction of the model.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Finance Research Letters.

Volume (Year): 2 (2005)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 260-269

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Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:2:y:2005:i:4:p:260-269

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl

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  1. Mick Silver & Christos Ioannidis, 2001. "Intercountry Differences in the Relationship between Relative Price Variability and Average Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(2), pages 355-374, April.
  2. John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1995. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," NBER Working Papers 4995, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. van Dijk, Dick & Teräsvirta, Timo & Franses, Philip Hans, 2000. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models - A Survey of Recent Developments," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 380, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 17 Jan 2001.
  4. Jansen, Eilev S & Terasvirta, Timo, 1996. "Testing Parameter Constancy and Super Exogeneity in Econometric Equations," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(4), pages 735-63, November.
  5. Jakob B Madsen & E Philip Davis, 2003. "Equity Prices, Productivity Growth, And ‘The New Economy’," Public Policy Discussion Papers 03-04, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
  6. Lucy F. Ackert & William C. Hunter, 2000. "An empirical examination of the price-dividend relation with dividend management," Working Paper Series WP-00-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  7. Grossman, Richard S., 2002. "New Indices Of British Equity Prices, 1870 1913," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 62(01), pages 121-146, March.
  8. DeAngelo, Harry & DeAngelo, Linda & Skinner, Douglas J, 1992. " Dividends and Losses," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1837-63, December.
  9. Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-65, September.
  10. Barsky, Robert B & De Long, J Bradford, 1993. "Why Does the Stock Market Fluctuate?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(2), pages 291-311, May.
  11. Michaely, Roni & Thaler, Richard H & Womack, Kent L, 1995. " Price Reactions to Dividend Initiations and Omissions: Overreaction or Drift?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 573-608, June.
  12. William C. Hunter & Lucy F. Ackert, 1999. "Intrinsic Bubbles: The Case of Stock Prices: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1372-1376, December.
  13. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-34, June.
  14. Friedman, Milton, 1977. "Nobel Lecture: Inflation and Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 451-72, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Nagayasu, Jun, 2007. "Putting the dividend-price ratio under the microscope," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 186-195, September.
  2. Pierre Giot & Mikael Petitjean, 2009. "Short-term market timing using the bond-equity yield ratio," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 365-384.
  3. Coakley, Jerry & Fuertes, Ana-Maria, 2006. "Valuation ratios and price deviations from fundamentals," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 2325-2346, August.
  4. Giot, Pierre & Petitjean, Mikael, 2007. "The information content of the Bond-Equity Yield Ratio: Better than a random walk?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 289-305.

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