IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/b/zbw/bofism/sm2006_035.html
   My bibliography  Save this book

Bubbles in the Finnish and US equities markets

Author

Listed:
  • Taipalus, Katja

Abstract

Tests for unit roots in log dividend yields, which are consistent with `rational bubbles' in stock prices, are conducted for the S&P500 and Finnish stock market indexes.In addition to the traditional unit root tests, we split the data into 10-year segments and use frequency domain analysis to test for the presence of unit roots in the dividend yield data.The results strongly suggest the existence of bubbles in both the US and Finnish markets.Finally we develop a novel dividend yield-based method to track periods when stock prices divert their fundamental levels. This indicator produces promising results, as it seems to have some forecasting ability concerning booms and busts in the stock markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Taipalus, Katja, 2006. "Bubbles in the Finnish and US equities markets," Bank of Finland Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, volume 0, number sm2006_035.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofism:sm2006_035
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/212968/1/e35-bof-studies.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 2001. "Should Central Banks Respond to Movements in Asset Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 253-257, May.
    2. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2001. "Disappearing Dividends: Changing Firm Characteristics Or Lower Propensity To Pay?," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 14(1), pages 67-79, March.
    3. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings and Expected Dividends," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 858, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    4. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 2001. "Valuation Ratios and the Long-Run Stock Market Outlook: An Update," NBER Working Papers 8221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Behzad T. Diba & Herschel I. Grossman, 1984. "Rational Bubbles in the Price of Gold," NBER Working Papers 1300, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-738, August.
    7. John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 195-228.
    8. Bikhchandani, Sushil & Hirshleifer, David & Welch, Ivo, 1992. "A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change in Informational Cascades," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(5), pages 992-1026, October.
    9. Busetti, Fabio & Taylor, A. M. Robert, 2004. "Tests of stationarity against a change in persistence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 33-66, November.
    10. Bohl, Martin T. & Siklos, Pierre L., 2004. "The present value model of U.S. stock prices redux: a new testing strategy and some evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 208-223, May.
    11. John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April.
    12. Evans, George W, 1991. "Pitfalls in Testing for Explosive Bubbles in Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 922-930, September.
    13. Kent Daniel & Sheridan Titman, 2006. "Market Reactions to Tangible and Intangible Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1605-1643, August.
    14. William C. Hunter & Lucy F. Ackert, 1999. "Intrinsic Bubbles: The Case of Stock Prices: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1372-1376, December.
    15. Fama, Eugene F, 1991. "Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-1617, December.
    16. John Y. Campbell, 2000. "Asset Pricing at the Millennium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1515-1567, August.
    17. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    18. Charles R. Bean, 2004. "Asset Prices, Financial Instability, and Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 14-18, May.
    19. Brav, Alon & Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R. & Michaely, Roni, 2005. "Payout policy in the 21st century," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(3), pages 483-527, September.
    20. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-1088, October.
    21. Ben S. Bernanke & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1997. "Inflation Targeting: A New Framework for Monetary Policy?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 97-116, Spring.
    22. Campbell, John Y & Ammer, John, 1993. "What Moves the Stock and Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition for Long-Term Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-37, March.
    23. David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1991. "Speculative Dynamics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(3), pages 529-546.
    24. D. W. K. Andrews, 2003. "End-of-Sample Instability Tests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1661-1694, November.
    25. Louis K. C. Chan & Hsiu-Lang Chen & Josef Lakonishok, 2002. "On Mutual Fund Investment Styles," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(5), pages 1407-1437.
    26. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1982. "Bubbles, Rational Expectations and Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 0945, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Diba, Behzad T & Grossman, Herschel I, 1988. "Explosive Rational Bubbles in Stock Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 520-530, June.
    28. Craine, Roger, 1993. "Rational bubbles : A test," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(5-6), pages 829-846.
    29. Cochrane, John H., 1991. "Volatility tests and efficient markets : A review essay," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 463-485, June.
    30. Meredith Beechey & David Gruen & James Vickery, 2000. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis: A Survey," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2000-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    31. Banerjee, Anindya & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1992. "Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit-Root and Trend-Break Hypotheses: Theory and International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 271-287, July.
    32. DeAngelo, Harry & DeAngelo, Linda & Skinner, Douglas J., 2004. "Are dividends disappearing? Dividend concentration and the consolidation of earnings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(3), pages 425-456, June.
    33. Abhijit V. Banerjee, 1992. "A Simple Model of Herd Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(3), pages 797-817.
    34. Behzad T. Diba & Herschel I. Grossman, 1987. "On the Inception of Rational Bubbles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 102(3), pages 697-700.
    35. Barclay, Michael J. & Warner, Jerold B., 1993. "Stealth trading and volatility : Which trades move prices?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 281-305, December.
    36. Nathan S. Balke & Mark E. Wohar, 2001. "Explaining stock price movements: is there a case for fundamentals?," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q III, pages 22-34.
    37. Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti & Roisin O'Sullivan, 2002. "Asset Prices in the Measurement of Inflation," NBER Working Papers 8700, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    38. Bill Dupor & Timothy Conley, 2004. "The Fed Response to Equity Prices and Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 24-28, May.
    39. Allen, Franklin & Gale, Douglas, 2000. "Bubbles and Crises," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 236-255, January.
    40. Donaldson, R Glen & Kamstra, Mark, 1996. "A New Dividend Forecasting Procedure That Rejects Bubbles in Asset Prices: The Case of 1929's Stock Crash," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(2), pages 333-383.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Taipalus, Katja, 2012. "Detecting asset price bubbles with time-series methods," Bank of Finland Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, volume 0, number sm2012_047.
    2. Taipalus, Katja, 2012. "Signaling asset price bubbles with time-series methods," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 7/2012, Bank of Finland.
    3. Virtanen, Timo & Tölö, Eero & Virén, Matti & Taipalus, Katja, 2016. "Use of unit root methods in early warning of financial crises," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 27/2016, Bank of Finland.
    4. Nyberg, Peter & Vaihekoski, Mika, 2014. "Descriptive analysis of the Finnish stock market: Part II," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 10/2014, Bank of Finland.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Taipalus, Katja, 2006. "Bubbles in the Finnish and US equities markets," Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, number 35/2006.
    2. repec:zbw:bofism:2006_035 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:zbw:bofism:2012_047 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Taipalus, Katja, 2012. "Detecting asset price bubbles with time-series methods," Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, number 2012_047.
    5. Taipalus, Katja, 2012. "Detecting asset price bubbles with time-series methods," Bank of Finland Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, volume 0, number sm2012_047.
    6. Stéphane Goutte & David Guerreiro & Bilel Sanhaji & Sophie Saglio & Julien Chevallier, 2019. "International Financial Markets," Post-Print halshs-02183053, HAL.
    7. Daniel, Kent & Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2002. "Investor psychology in capital markets: evidence and policy implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 139-209, January.
    8. Drobyshevsky Sergey & Narkevich Sergey & E. Pikulina & D. Polevoy, 2009. "Analysis Of a Possible Bubble On the Russian Real Estate Market," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 128.
    9. Simon van Norden & Huntley Schaller, 2002. "Fads or bubbles?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 335-362.
    10. McMillan, David G., 2007. "Bubbles in the dividend-price ratio? Evidence from an asymmetric exponential smooth-transition model," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 787-804, March.
    11. Bohl, Martin T. & Siklos, Pierre L., 2004. "The present value model of U.S. stock prices redux: a new testing strategy and some evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 208-223, May.
    12. Refet S. Gürkaynak, 2008. "Econometric Tests Of Asset Price Bubbles: Taking Stock," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 166-186, February.
    13. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    14. Tro Kortian, 1995. "Modern Approaches to Asset Price Formation: A Survey of Recent Theoretical Literature," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9501, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    15. Vicente Esteve & Manuel Navarro-Ibáñez & María A. Prats, 2013. "The present value model of US stock prices revisited: long-run evidence with structural breaks, 1871-2010," Working Papers 04/13, Instituto Universitario de Análisis Económico y Social.
    16. Eugene N. White, 2004. "Bubbles and Busts: The 1990s in the Mirror of the 1920s," FRU Working Papers 2004/09, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Finance Research Unit.
    17. Esteve, Vicente & Navarro-Ibáñez, Manuel & Prats, María A., 2020. "Stock prices, dividends, and structural changes in the long-term: The case of U.S," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    18. Vicente Esteve & Manuel Navarro-Ibáñez & María A. Prats, 2013. "The present value model of U.S. stock prices revisited: long-run evidence with structural breaks, 1871-2010," Working Papers 1305, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    19. Peter C. B. Phillips & Yangru Wu & Jun Yu, 2011. "EXPLOSIVE BEHAVIOR IN THE 1990s NASDAQ: WHEN DID EXUBERANCE ESCALATE ASSET VALUES?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(1), pages 201-226, February.
    20. David Hirshleifer, 2001. "Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1533-1597, August.
    21. Nathan S. Balke & Mark E. Wohar, 2009. "Market fundamentals versus rational bubbles in stock prices: a Bayesian perspective," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 35-75.
    22. Simon van Norden & Huntley Schaller & ), 1995. "Speculative Behaviour, Regime-Switching, and Stock Market Crashes," Econometrics 9502003, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    equity price; bubble; rolling ADF;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • P50 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:bofism:sm2006_035. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bofgvfi.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.