Do We Reject Too Often? Small Sample Bias in Tests of Rational Expectations
AbstractWe examine the small sample properties of tests of rational expectations models. We show using Monte Carlo experiments that these tests can be extremely biased toward rejection for sample sizes typical in applied research. These biases are important when the time series examined are highly autoregressive. We also show that these tests are even more biased with detrended data. We present correct small sample critical values for our canonical problem.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 743.
Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: Apr 1985
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Economics Letters (1986), 20: 139-145
Note: CFP 637.
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA
Phone: (203) 432-3702
Fax: (203) 432-6167
Web page: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/
More information through EDIRC
Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Mankiw, N.G. & Romer, D. & Shapiro, M.D., 1989.
"Stock Market Forecastability And Volatility: A Statistical Appraisal,"
89-21, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.
- Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Shapiro, Matthew D, 1991. "Stock Market Forecastability and Volatility: A Statistical Appraisal," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(3), pages 455-77, May.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & David H. Romer & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1989. "Stock Market Forecastability and Volatility: A Statistical Appraisal," NBER Working Papers 3154, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Leonardo Bartolini & Gordon M. Bodnar, 1996.
"Are exchange rates excessively volatile? And what does "excessively volatile" mean, anyway?,"
9601, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Leonardo Bartolini & Gordon M. Bodnar, 1996. "Are Exchange Rates Excessively Volatile? And What Does "Excessively Volatile" Mean, Anyway?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(1), pages 72-96, March.
- Gordon M. Bodnar & Leonardo Bartolini, 1995. "Are Exchange Rates Excessively Volatile? And What Does "Excessively Volatile" Mean, Anyway?," IMF Working Papers 95/85, International Monetary Fund.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Glena Ames).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.