Robustness and Exchange Rate Volatility
AbstractThis paper studies exchange rate volatility within the context of the monetary model of exchange rates. We assume agents regard this model as merely a benchmark, or reference model, and attempt to construct forecasts that are robust to model misspecification. We show that revisions of robust forecasts are more volatile than revisions of nonrobust forecasts, and that empirically plausible concerns for model misspecification can easily explain observed exchange rate volatility.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University in its series Discussion Papers with number dp12-01.
Date of creation: Mar 2012
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Postal: Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University, 8888 University Drive, Burnaby, BC, V5A 1S6, Canada
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Postal: Working Paper Coordinator, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University, 8888 University Drive, Burnaby, BC, V5A 1S6, Canada
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-04-10 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2012-04-10 (Central Banking)
- NEP-FOR-2012-04-10 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MON-2012-04-10 (Monetary Economics)
- NEP-OPM-2012-04-10 (Open Economy Macroeconomics)
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