A Test for Speculative Bubbles in the Sterling-Dollar Exchange Rate: 1981-84
AbstractThe U.S. dollar price of the U.K. pound sterling is tested for a speculative bubble, defined as a period with a nonzero median in excessreturns. A nonparametric procedure is developed, which controls for data mining over the period of flexible exchange rates, and finds a negative bubble in the excess return to holding sterling rather than dollar assets during the period 1981-84. Possible interpretations arebootstrap equilibria (rational bubbles), nonsym-metric fundamentals, and nonrational expectations. Copyright 1986 by American Economic Association.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.
Volume (Year): 76 (1986)
Issue (Month): 4 (September)
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