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A robust Hansen-Sargent prediction formula

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  • Kasa, Kenneth

Abstract

This paper derives a formula for the optimal forecast of a discounted sum of future values of a random variable. This problem reflects a preference for robustness in the presence of (unstructured) model uncertainty. The paper shows that revisions of a robust forecast are more sensitive to new information, and discusses the relevance of this result to previous findings of excess sensitivity of consumption and asset prices to new information.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V84-42HXGF4-6/2/4e3888618a3985b3b5b74e7a2965eb9b
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 71 (2001)
Issue (Month): 1 (April)
Pages: 43-48

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:71:y:2001:i:1:p:43-48

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet

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References

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  1. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-36, June.
  2. Kasa, Kenneth, 2002. "Model Uncertainty, Robust Policies, And The Value Of Commitment," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(01), pages 145-166, February.
  3. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J & Tallarini, Thomas D, Jr, 1999. "Robust Permanent Income and Pricing," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(4), pages 873-907, October.
  4. Flavin, Marjorie A, 1981. "The Adjustment of Consumption to Changing Expectations about Future Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 974-1009, October.
  5. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 1981. "A note on Wiener-Kolmogorov prediction formulas for rational expectations models," Staff Report 69, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  6. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 1980. "Formulating and estimating dynamic linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 7-46, May.
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Cited by:
  1. Kilponen, Juha, 2004. "Robust expectations and uncertain models – A robust control approach with application to the New Keynesian economy," Research Discussion Papers 5/2004, Bank of Finland.
  2. Martin Ellison & Thomas J. Sargent, 2012. "A Defense Of The Fomc," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(4), pages 1047-1065, November.

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