A robust Hansen-Sargent prediction formula
AbstractThis paper derives a formula for the optimal forecast of a discounted sum of future values of a random variable. This problem reflects a preference for robustness in the presence of (unstructured) model uncertainty. The paper shows that revisions of a robust forecast are more sensitive to new information, and discusses the relevance of this result to previous findings of excess sensitivity of consumption and asset prices to new information.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics Letters.
Volume (Year): 71 (2001)
Issue (Month): 1 (April)
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet
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