A robust Hansen-Sargent prediction formula
This paper derives a formula for the optimal forecast of a discounted sum of future values of a random variable. This problem reflects a preference for robustness in the presence of (unstructured) model uncertainty. The paper shows that revisions of a robust forecast are more sensitive to new information, and discusses the relevance of this result to previous findings of excess sensitivity of consumption and asset prices to new information.
To our knowledge, this item is not available for
download. To find whether it is available, there are three
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
|Date of creation:||2000|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published in Economics Letters (April 2001, v. 71 no. 1, p43-48)|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: P.O. Box 7702, San Francisco, CA 94120-7702|
Phone: (415) 974-2000
Fax: (415) 974-3333
Web page: http://www.frbsf.org/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Email: |
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Robert J. Shiller, 1980.
"Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?,"
NBER Working Papers
0456, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-36, June.
- Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 1979.
"Formulating and estimating dynamic linear rational expectations models,"
127, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 1980. "Formulating and estimating dynamic linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 7-46, May.
- Flavin, Marjorie A, 1981. "The Adjustment of Consumption to Changing Expectations about Future Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 974-1009, October.
- Kasa, Kenneth, 2002.
"Model Uncertainty, Robust Policies, And The Value Of Commitment,"
Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(01), pages 145-166, February.
- Kenneth Kasa, 1999. "Model uncertainty, robust policies, and the value of commitment," Working Paper Series 99-14, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent & Thomas D. Tallarini, 1999.
"Robust Permanent Income and Pricing,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Oxford University Press, vol. 66(4), pages 873-907.
- Lars Hansen & Thomas Sargent & Thomas Tallarini, . "Robust Permanent Income and Pricing," GSIA Working Papers 1997-51, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
- Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent & Thomas D. Tallarini Jr., 1997. "Robust Permanent Income and Pricing," Levine's Working Paper Archive 596, David K. Levine.
- Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 1981.
"A note on Wiener-Kolmogorov prediction formulas for rational expectations models,"
Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 255-260.
- Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 1981. "A note on Wiener-Kolmogorov prediction formulas for rational expectations models," Staff Report 69, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2000-11. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Noah Pollaczek)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.