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Model Uncertainty, Robust Policies, And The Value Of Commitment

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Kasa, Kenneth

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Abstract

Using results from the literature on H control, this paper incorporates model uncertainty into a frequency-domain approach to stabilization policy. The derived policies guarantee a minimum performance level even in the worst of (a bounded set of) circumstances. Robust H policies are shown to be more activist than H2 policies in the sense that their impulse responses are larger. Robust policies also tend to be more autocorrelated. Consequently, the premium associated with being able to commit is greater under model uncertainty. Without commitment, the policymaker is not able to (credibly) smooth his response to the degree that he would like. A contribution of this paper is its analysis of robust control in a model featuring a forward-looking state transition equation, which arises from the fact that the private sector bases its decisions on expectations of future government policy. Existing applications of H control in economics follow the engineering literature, and only consider backward-looking state transition equations.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Cambridge University Press in its journal Macroeconomic Dynamics.

Volume (Year): 6 (2002)
Issue (Month): 01 (February)
Pages: 145-166
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Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:6:y:2002:i:01:p:145-166_02

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  1. Stokey, Nancy L., 1991. "Credible public policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 627-656, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Whiteman, Charles H, 1986. "An Analytical Policy Design under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(6), pages 1387-1405, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Kasa, Kenneth, 1998. "Optimal policy with limited commitment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 887-910, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Chari, V V & Kehoe, Patrick J, 1990. "Sustainable Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 783-802, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Christopher A. Sims, 1982. "Policy Analysis with Econometric Models," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 13(1982-1), pages 107-164. [Downloadable!]
  6. Prescott, Edward C., 1977. "Should control theory be used for economic stabilization?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 13-38, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Bennett T. McCallum, 1995. "Two Fallacies Concerning Central Bank Independence," NBER Working Papers 5075, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Salmon, Mark, 2002. "Robust Decision Theory And The Lucas Critique," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(01), pages 167-185, February. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Oliner, Stephen D. & Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Sichel, Daniel, 1996. "The Lucas critique revisited assessing the stability of empirical Euler equations for investment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 291-316, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Taylor, John B, 1975. "Monetary Policy during a Transition to Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(5), pages 1009-21, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent & Thomas D. Tallarini Jr., 1997. "Robust Permanent Income and Pricing," Levine's Working Paper Archive 596, David K. Levine. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 1980. "Formulating and estimating dynamic linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 7-46, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Sargent, Thomas J, 1984. "Autoregressions, Expectations, and Advice," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(2), pages 408-15, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Roberds, William, 1987. "Models of Policy under Stochastic Replanning," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(3), pages 731-55, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. repec:att:wimass:1920422 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Aaron Tornell, 2003. "Robust-H_infinity Forecasting and Asset Pricing Anomalies (December 2001)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 237, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Marc P. Giannoni, 2007. "Robust optimal monetary policy in a forward-looking model with parameter and shock uncertainty," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 179-213. [Downloadable!]
  4. A. Hakan Kara, 2002. "Robust Targeting Rules for Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 0208, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. [Downloadable!]
  5. Marc Giannoni, 2006. "Robust Optimal Policy in a Forward-Looking Model with Parameter and Shock Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 11942, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Oreste Tristani, 2007. "Model misspecification, the equilibrium natural interest rate and the equity premium," Working Paper Series 808, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Martin Ellison & Thomas J. Sargent, 2009. "A defence of the FOMC," Economics Series Working Papers 457, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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