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Model misspecification, the equilibrium natural interest rate and the equity premium

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  • Tristani, Oreste

Abstract

This paper analyses the determinants of the natural rate of interest in a non-linear model where agents are uncertain over both future technology growth and the future course of monetary policy. I show that the real natural rate can be affected by sizable uncertainty premia, including premia associated with monetary un-certainty. This result is potentially problematic for both the estimation of the natural rate and its use as a policy indicator. Monetary uncertainty can also contribute to amplify the equity premium, and to account for its apparent, positive link with inflation. JEL Classification: E43, G11

Suggested Citation

  • Tristani, Oreste, 2007. "Model misspecification, the equilibrium natural interest rate and the equity premium," Working Paper Series 808, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2007808
    Note: 24907
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrey Sinyakov & Alexey Porshakov, 2019. "Estimates of the Natural Rate of Interest for Russia: Is ‘Navigating by the Stars’ Useful?," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 78(4), pages 3-47, December.
    2. Giovanni Lombardo & Peter McAdam, 2010. "Incorporating financial frictions into new-generation macro models," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 9, pages 13-16.
    3. Romain Bouis & Łukasz Rawdanowicz & Jean-Paul Renne & Shingo Watanabe & Ane Kathrine Christensen, 2013. "The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy since the Onset of the Financial Crisis," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1081, OECD Publishing.
    4. Olmos, Lorena & Sanso Frago, Marcos, 2014. "Non-linear effects of the U.S. Monetary Policy in the Long Run," MPRA Paper 57770, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Lioui, Abraham & Poncet, Patrice, 2012. "On model ambiguity and money neutrality," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1020-1033.
    6. Olmos, Lorena & Sanso Frago, Marcos, 2014. "Natural Rate of Interest with Endogenous Growth, Financial Frictions and Trend Inflation," MPRA Paper 57212, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Angela Maddaloni & José-Luis Peydró, 2010. "Bank lending standards and the origins and implications of the current banking crisis," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 9, pages 6-9.
    8. Fiorella De Fiore & Oreste Tristani, 2010. "Financial conditions and monetary policy," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 9, pages 10-12.
    9. Fiorella De Fiore & Oreste Tristani, 2011. "Credit and the Natural Rate of Interest," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(2‐3), pages 407-440, March.
    10. Xu, Yuan, 2015. "Robustness to model uncertainty and the nominal term premium puzzle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 124-137.
    11. Cornelia Holthausen & Huw Pill, 2010. "The forgotten markets: How understanding money markets helps us to understand the financial crisis," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 9, pages 2-5.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    equity premium puzzle; model misspecification.; natural rate of interest; risk-free rate puzzle; robust control;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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