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Stochastic inflation and the equity premium

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Author Info
Pamela Labadie

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Abstract

The effects of stochastic inflation on equity prices and the equity premium are studied in a pure-endowment asset-pricing model with a cash-in-advance constraint. Stochastic inflation affects the equity premium through two channels: the assessment of an inflation tax and the presence of an inflation premium. Real and monetary versions of the model are simulated and the comparative dynamic results corroborate the conclusion that inflation has quantitatively important effects. ; The other important result is that the equity premium in the real version of a model—a continuous state-space generalization of Mehra and Prescott (1985)—and the monetary model is very sensitive to the conditional variance of endowment growth. When the standard deviation of endowment growth is increased from 3.49 percent (the estimated value) to 5.59 percent, the real model can generate an equity premium of 2.8 percent in the range of the risk aversion parameters considered by Mehra and Prescott. The monetary model displays similar sensitivity and can generate an equity premium of 5.81 percent.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in its series Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics with number 12.

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Date of creation: 1989
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmem:12

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Related research
Keywords: Inflation (Finance);

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  1. A. Gregoriou & CHRISTOS IOANNIDIS, 2003. "GMM and present value tests of the C-CAPM under Transactions Costs: Evidence from the UK stock market," Public Policy Discussion Papers 03-01, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. S. Rao Aiyagari & Mark Gertler, 1990. "Asset Returns with Transactions Cost and Uninsured Risk: A Stage III Exercise," NBER Working Papers 3481, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Yu Chen & Thomas Cosimano & Alex Himonas, 2008. "Solving an asset pricing model with hybrid internal and external habits, and autocorrelated Gaussian shocks," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 305-344, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Ralph Chami & Thomas F. Cosimano & Connel Fullenkamp, 2001. "Capital Trading, Stock Trading, and the Inflation Tax on Equity," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 4(3), pages 575-606, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. S. Rao Aiyagari, 1994. "Macroeconomics with frictions," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Sum, pages 24-40. [Downloadable!]
  6. Alberto Giovannini & Pamela Labadie, 1989. "Asset Prices and Interest Rates in Cash-In-Advance Models," NBER Working Papers 3109, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Timothy Cogley, 1995. "Inflation uncertainty and excess returns on stocks and banks," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 21-29. [Downloadable!]
  8. S. Rao Aiyagari, 1993. "Explaining financial market facts: the importance of incomplete markets and transaction costs," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 17-31. [Downloadable!]
  9. Oreste Tristani, 2007. "Model misspecification, the equilibrium natural interest rate and the equity premium," Working Paper Series 808, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Geert Bekaert & Steven R. Grenadier, 1999. "Stock and Bond Pricing in an Affine Economy," NBER Working Papers 7346, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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