Robust Decision Theory And The Lucas Critique
AbstractIn this paper, we reconsider the theoretical basis for the Lucas critique from the point of view of robust decision theory. We first emphasize that the Lucas critique rests on a weak theoretical paradigm in that it fails to consider the motivation for the policy change by the government and hence inconsistently assumes limited rationality by the government. When placed in a proper dynamic general equilibrium framework of a dynamic game between the government and the private sector, much of the force of the critique simply vanishes. We also reconsider the critique by adopting an alternative theoretical paradigm and notion of rationality based on robust decision theory. This view of rationality might be regarded as more relevant than the nonrobust rationality employed by Lucas and, critically, it is one in which the Lucas critique can be shown simply not to apply, provided the private sector has adopted suitably robust decision rules.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Cambridge University Press in its journal Macroeconomic Dynamics.
Volume (Year): 6 (2002)
Issue (Month): 01 (February)
Contact details of provider:
Postal: The Edinburgh Building, Shaftesbury Road, Cambridge CB2 2RU UK
Fax: +44 (0)1223 325150
Web page: http://journals.cambridge.org/jid_MDYProvider-Email:email@example.com
Other versions of this item:
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- William A. Brock & Steven N. Durlauf, 2004.
"Elements of a Theory of Design Limits to Optimal Policy,"
University of Manchester, vol. 72(s1), pages 1-18, 09.
- William A. Brock & Steven N. Durlauf, 2004. "Elements of a Theory of Design Limits to Optimal Policy," NBER Working Papers 10495, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Brock,W.A. & Durlauf,S.N., 2003. "Elements of a theory of design limits to optimal policy," Working papers 25, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Brock,W.A. & Durlauf,S.N., 2004.
"Local robustness analysis : theory and application,"
22, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Brock,W.A. & Durlauf,S.N. & West,K.D., 2004.
"Model uncertainty and policy evaluation : some theory and empirics,"
19, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- William Brock & Steven Durlauf & Kenneth West, 2005. "Model uncertainty and policy evaluation: some theory and empirics," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Brock, William A. & Durlauf, Steven N. & West, Kenneth D., 2007. "Model uncertainty and policy evaluation: Some theory and empirics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 629-664, February.
- William A. Brock & Steven N. Durlauf & Kenneth D. West, 2004. "Model Uncertainty and Policy Evaluation: Some Theory and Empirics," NBER Working Papers 10916, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kasa, Kenneth, 2002.
"Model Uncertainty, Robust Policies, And The Value Of Commitment,"
Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(01), pages 145-166, February.
- Kenneth Kasa, 1999. "Model uncertainty, robust policies, and the value of commitment," Working Paper Series 99-14, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Pataracchia, B., 2011. "Ambiguity and Volatility: Asset Pricing Implications," Discussion Paper 2011-042, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Gonzalez F. & Rodriguez A. & Gonzalez-Garcia J.R., 2005. "Uncertainty about the Persistence of Periods with Large Price Shocks and the Optimal Reaction of the Monetary Authority," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 402, Society for Computational Economics.
- Gerlach-Kristen, Petra, 2006. "Internal and external shocks in Hong Kong: Empirical evidence and policy options," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 56-75, January.
- repec:fip:fedfap:99-14 is not listed on IDEAS
- Arnulfo Rodríguez & Fidel González & Jesús R. González García, 2007. "Uncertainty about the Persistence of Cost-Push Shocks and the Optimal Reaction of the Monetary Authority," Working Papers 2007-05, Banco de México.
- Brock,W.A. & Durlauf,S.N., 2004. "Macroeconomics and model uncertainty," Working papers 20, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Keith Waters).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.