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Excess volatility of exchange rates with unobservable fundamentals

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  • Leonardo Bartolini
  • Lorenzo Giorgianni

Abstract

We present tests of excess volatility of exchange rates that impose minimal structure on the data and do not commit to a choice of exchange rate "fundamentals." Our method builds on existing volatility tests of asset prices, combining them with a procedure that extracts unobservable fundamentals from survey-based exchange rate expectations. We apply our method to data for the three major exchange rates since 1984 and find broad evidence of excess volatility with respect to the predictions of the canonical asset-pricing model of the exchange rate with rational expectations.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its series Staff Reports with number 103.

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Date of creation: 2000
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:103

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Keywords: Foreign exchange rates ; Asset pricing;

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  1. Stockman, Alan C, 1980. "A Theory of Exchange Rate Determination," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(4), pages 673-98, August.
  2. Ray C. Fair, 1986. "International Evidence on the Demand for Money," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 813, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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  9. Vander Kraats, R.H. & Booth, L.D., 1983. "Empirical tests of the monetary approach to exchange-rate determination," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 255-278, December.
  10. Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Shapiro, Matthew D, 1991. "Stock Market Forecastability and Volatility: A Statistical Appraisal," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(3), pages 455-77, May.
  11. Robert P. Flood & Andrew K. Rose, 1993. "Fixing Exchange Rates: A Virtual Quest for Fundamentals," NBER Working Papers 4503, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Mark P. Taylor & Ronald MacDonald, 1991. "Exchange Rate Economics: A Survey," IMF Working Papers 91/62, International Monetary Fund.
  13. Robert P. Flood & Andrew K. Rose & Donald J. Mathieson, 1990. "An Empirical Exploration of Exchange Rate Target-Zones," NBER Working Papers 3543, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Miller, Merton, 1998. "Asian financial crisis," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 355-358, July.
  15. Huang, Roger D, 1981. "The Monetary Approach to Exchange Rate in an Efficient Foreign Exchange Market: Tests Based on Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(1), pages 31-41, March.
  16. Eichengreen, Barry & Tobin, James & Wyplosz, Charles, 1995. "Two Cases for Sand in the Wheels of International Finance," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(428), pages 162-72, January.
  17. Olivier Jeanne & Andrew K Rose, 1999. "Noise trading and exchange rate regimes," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/2, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  18. Calvo, Guillermo A & Rodriguez, Carlos Alfredo, 1977. "A Model of Exchange Rate Determination under Currency Substitution and Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 617-25, June.
  19. Diba, Behzad T, 1987. "A Critique of Variance Bounds Tests for Monetary Exchange Rate Models: A Note," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 19(1), pages 104-11, February.
  20. Gardeazabal, Javier & Regulez, Marta & Vazquez, Jesus, 1997. "Testing the Canonical Model of Exchange Rates with Unobservable Fundamentals," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(2), pages 389-404, May.
  21. Jeffrey A. Frankel and Andrew K. Rose., 1995. "A Survey of Empirical Research on Nominal Exchange Rates," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C95-051, University of California at Berkeley.
  22. Gordon M. Bodnar & Leonardo Bartolini, 1992. "Target Zones and Forward Rates in a Model with Repeated Realignments," IMF Working Papers 92/22, International Monetary Fund.
  23. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1982. "Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 335-359.
  24. Liu, Peter C. & Maddala, G. S., 1992. "Rationality of survey data and tests for market efficiency in the foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 366-381, August.
  25. Robert P. Flood & Mark P. Taylor, 1996. "Exchange Rate Economics: What's Wrong with the Conventional Macro Approach?," NBER Chapters, in: The Microstructure of Foreign Exchange Markets, pages 261-302 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Wadhwani, Sushil B., 1987. "Are exchange rates 'excessively' volatile?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3-4), pages 339-348, May.
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Cited by:
  1. Christian A. Johnson, 2000. "Un Modelo de Intervención Cambiaria," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 90, Central Bank of Chile.
  2. Brandt, Michael W. & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2002. "Simulated likelihood estimation of diffusions with an application to exchange rate dynamics in incomplete markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 161-210, February.
  3. Michael W. Brandt & Pedro Santa-Clara, 2001. "Simulated Likelihood Estimation of Diffusions with an Application to Exchange Rate Dynamics in Incomplete Markets," NBER Technical Working Papers 0274, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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