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Are there bubbles in the Sterling-dollar Exchange Rate? New evidence from Sequential ADF Tests

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  • Bettendorf, Timo
  • Chen, Wenjuan
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    Abstract

    There has been mixed evidence regarding the existence of rational bubbles in the foreign exchange markets. Standard unit root and cointegration tests are criticized for their low power to detect rational bubbles that periodically collapse. This paper introduces recently developed sequential unit root tests into the analysis of exchange rates bubbles. Our results show that explosiveness in the nominal Sterling-dollar exchange rates is fully explained by the relative prices of traded goods. --

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number 2012/21.

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    Date of creation: 2012
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:201221

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    Keywords: exchange rates; rational bubbles; sequential unit root test;

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    1. Caroline M. Betts & Timothy J. Kehoe, 2008. "Real Exchange Rate Movements and the Relative Price of Non-traded Goods," NBER Working Papers 14437, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. West, Kenneth D., 1987. "A standard monetary model and the variability of the deutschemark-dollar exchange rate," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1-2), pages 57-76, August.
    3. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Technical Working Papers 0100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Hall, Stephen G & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 1999. "Detecting Periodically Collapsing Bubbles: A Markov-Switching Unit Root Test," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 143-54, March-Apr.
    5. Meese, Richard A, 1986. "Testing for Bubbles in Exchange Markets: A Case of Sparkling Rates?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(2), pages 345-73, April.
    6. Engel, C., 1996. "Accounting for U.S. Real Exchange Rate Changes," Working Papers 96-02, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    7. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
    8. Wu, Yangru, 1995. "Are there rational bubbles in foreign exchange markets? Evidence from an alternative test," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 27-46, February.
    9. Evans, George W, 1991. "Pitfalls in Testing for Explosive Bubbles in Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 922-30, September.
    10. Diba, Behzad T & Grossman, Herschel I, 1988. "Explosive Rational Bubbles in Stock Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 520-30, June.
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