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Exchange Rate Volatility and International Prices

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Author Info
Robert C. Feenstra
Jon D. Kendall

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Abstract

We examine how exchange rate volatility affects exporter's pricing decisions in the presence of optimal forward covering. By taking account of forward covering, we are able to derive an expression for the risk premium in the foreign exchange market, which is then estimated as a generalized ARCH model to obtain the time-dependent variance of the exchange rate. Our theory implies a connection between the estimated risk premium equation, and the influence of exchange rate volatility on export prices. In particular, we argue that if there is no risk premium, then exchange rate variance can only have a negative impact on export prices. In the presence of a risk premium, however, the effect of exchange rate variance on export prices is ambiguous, and may be statistically insignificant with aggregate data. These results are supported using data on aggregate U.S. imports and exchange rates of the dollar against the pound. yen and mark.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3644.

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Date of creation: Mar 1991
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3644

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Ethier, Wilfred, 1973. "International Trade and the Forward Exchange Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 494-503, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Hoover, Kevin D, 1988. "On the Pitfalls of Untested Common-Factor Restrictions: The Case of the Inverted Fisher Hypothesis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 50(2), pages 125-38, May.
  3. Baron, David P, 1976. "Fluctuating Exchange Rates and the Pricing of Exports," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(3), pages 425-38, September.
  4. Robert J. Hodrick, 1989. "Risk, Uncertainty and Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 2429, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Giovannini, Alberto, 1988. "Exchange rates and traded goods prices," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 45-68, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Feenstra, Robert C., 1989. "Symmetric pass-through of tariffs and exchange rates under imperfect competition: An empirical test," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 25-45, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-53, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. E.K. Berndt & B.H. Hall & R.E. Hall, 1974. "Estimation and Inference in Nonlinear Structural Models," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 3, number 4, pages 103-116 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  9. Domowitz, Ian & Hakkio, Craig S., 1985. "Conditional variance and the risk premium in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 47-66, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. O. Cushman, David, 1986. "Has exchange risk depressed international trade? The impact of third-country exchange risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 361-379, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Hakkio, Craig S., 1984. "A re-examination of purchasing power parity : A multi-country and multi-period study," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3-4), pages 265-277, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 1989. "The Message in Daily Exchange Rates: A Conditional-Variance Tale," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(3), pages 297-305, July.
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  14. West, Kenneth D., 1987. "A standard monetary model and the variability of the deutschemark-dollar exchange rate," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1-2), pages 57-76, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Grassman, Sven, 1973. "A fundamental symmetry in international payment patterns," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 105-116, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Meese, Richard A & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. " On Unit Roots and the Empirical Modeling of Exchange Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1029-35, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Cushman, David O., 1983. "The effects of real exchange rate risk on international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1-2), pages 45-63, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Robert Engle & Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Modelling the persistence of conditional variances," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1-50. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "A multivariate generalized ARCH approach to modeling risk premia in forward foreign exchange rate markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 309-324, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Dieter Billen & Maria Melody Garcia & Nelli Khasanova, 2005. "Is the Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Trade More Pronounced in Latin America than in Asia?," Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers 434, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  2. Olimov, Ulugbek & Sirajiddinov, Nishanbay, 2008. "The Effects of the Real Exchange Rate Volatility and Misalignments on Foreign Trade Flows in Uzbekistan," Economics Discussion Papers 2008-29, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric Van Wincoop, 1998. "Does Exchange Rate Stability Increase Trade and Capital Flows?," NBER Working Papers 6704, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Agathe Cote, . "Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade: A Survey," Working Papers 94-5, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  5. Agathe Cote, 1994. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade," International Trade 9406001, EconWPA, revised 23 Jun 1994. [Downloadable!]
  6. Qian, Ying & Varangis, Panos, 1992. "Does exchange rate volatility hinder export growth? Additional evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 911, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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