This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

The Effects of the Real Exchange Rate Volatility and Misalignments on Foreign Trade Flows in Uzbekistan

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Olimov, Ulugbek
Sirajiddinov, Nishanbay

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

This study documents a quantitative analysis of exchange rate volatilities and misalignment in Uzbekistan for the period of 1994q3–2005q2. The results suggest thatthe real exchange rate volatility and misalignment have depressing effects on the volume of trade, mainly exports in Uzbekistan. The Governments currency rationing policy was lessening the volatility proving that the policy-induced changes in exchange rate has a stabilizing effect on trade flows. The implied elasticity for the most significant real exchange rate volatility coefficient is -0.20. Using a two-step Engle-Granger technique import demand and export supply price elasticities are computed. The results are consistent with the predictions from a number of previous studies, and in particular, the estimated exports price elasticity for Uzbek economy ranges from 1.65 to 1.84, while import demand price elasticity is between -0.78 and -0.83. At the same time, relatively lower elasticity during ’the currency rationing’ period indicate that large devaluations, most likely, did not generate the expected improvements in the overall export performance.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/9749/
File Format:
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 9749.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: Mar 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:9749

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Schackstr. 4, D-80539 Munich, Germany
Phone: +49-(0)89-2180-2219
Fax: +49-(0)89-2180-3900
Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).

Related research
Keywords: real exchange rate; volatility; misalignment; trade flows; Uzbekistan;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Kim, Byung-Yeon & Korhonen, Iikka, 2002. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Countries: Evidence from Dynamic Heterogeneous Panel Models," BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2002, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. César Calderón, 2004. "Trade Openness And Real Exchange Rate Volatility: Panel Data Evidence," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 294, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  3. Caporale, Tony & Doroodian, Khosrow, 1994. "Exchange rate variability and the flow of international trade," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 49-54, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Cottani, Joaquin A & Cavallo, Domingo F & Khan, M Shahbaz, 1990. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior and Economic Performance in LDCs," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(1), pages 61-76, October.
  6. Lee, Jaewoo, 1999. "The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Trade in Durables," Review of International Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 7(2), pages 189-201, May.
  7. Sekkat, K. & Varoudakis, A., 1999. "Incentive Policies and Manufactures Exports in North Africa," Papers 9922, Economic Research Forum.
  8. Robert C. Feenstra & Jon D. Kendall, 1991. "Exchange Rate Volatility and International Prices," NBER Working Papers 3644, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Sekkat, K., 1998. "Exchange Rate Variability and EU Trade," European Economy - Economic Papers 127, Commission of the EC, Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN).
  10. Ofair Razin & Susan M. Collins, 1997. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignments and Growth," International Finance 9707001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  11. McKenzie, Michael D, 1999. " The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade Flows," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 13(1), pages 71-106, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2001. "External Wealth, the Trade Balance, and the Real Exchange Rate," Trinity Economics Papers 200121, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Frait, Jan & Komarek, Lubos & Meleck, Martin, 2006. "The Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in the Five Central European Countries," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 739, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  14. Wang, Kai-Li & Barrett, Christopher B., 2002. "A New Look At The Trade Volume Effects Of Real Exchange Rate Risk," Working Papers 14751, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management. [Downloadable!]
  15. Rose, Andrew K., 1991. "The role of exchange rates in a popular model of international trade : Does the 'Marshall-Lerner' condition hold?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3-4), pages 301-316, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Sapir, André & Sekkat, M. Khalid & Weber, Axel A, 1994. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on European Union Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 1041, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Ghura, Dhaneshwar & Grennes, Thomas J., 1993. "The real exchange rate and macroeconomic performance in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 155-174, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," MPRA Paper 6981, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  19. Ofair Razin & Susan M. Collins, 1997. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignments and Growth," NBER Working Papers 6174, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Kroner, Kenneth F. & Lastrapes, William D., 1993. "The impact of exchange rate volatility on international trade: Reduced form estimates using the GARCH-in-mean model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 298-318, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Ricardo Hausmann & Ugo Panizza & Roberto Rigobon, 2004. "The Long-Run Volatility Puzzle of the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 10751, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? IDEAS was launched in September 1997.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-11.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.