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Exchange Rate Misalignment And Growth: Old And New Econometric Evidence

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  • Paulo Gala
  • Claudio R. Lucinda

Abstract

Several studies have tried to identify the relationship between growth and misaligned or overvalued currencies. Many works (Easterly (2001) and Fajnzylber et alii (2002)), find negative correlations between exchange rate misalignment and growth for a long list of developing countries since the seventies; the more overvalued the currency, the smaller the per capita growth rates. Even after controlling the regressions for several types of variables, the studies cannot reject the statistical significance of overvalued exchange rates in explaining growth. This paper presents new econometric evidence for the exchange rate levels and growth relation based on a panel data study for 58 developing countries from 1960 until 1999 using PPP deviation measures. Our main contribution here is to estimate growth regressions with a real exchange rate index that deals with changes in real GDP per capita levels. We use a new overvaluation index that takes into account variations in real per capita incomes, adjusting, thus, our exchange rate estimates for the so-called Balassa-Samuelson effect. By correcting traditional real exchange rate annual estimates for GDP per capita increases, we intend to control our whole series for appreciations due to productivity increases as many authors do for some specific years.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics] in its series Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting] with number 93.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:anp:en2006:93

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  1. Ong, Li Lian, 1997. "Burgernomics: the economics of the Big Mac standard," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 865-878, December.
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  6. Mark P. Taylor, 1995. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 13-47, March.
  7. Stanley Fischer, 1993. "The Role of Macroeconomic Factors in Growth," NBER Working Papers 4565, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter M. Garber, 2005. "Interest Rates, Exchange Rates and International Adjustment," NBER Working Papers 11771, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Polterovich, Victor & Popov, Vladimir, 2003. "Accumulation of Foreign Exchange Reserves and Long Term Growth," MPRA Paper 20069, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Ghura, Dhaneshwar & Grennes, Thomas J., 1993. "The real exchange rate and macroeconomic performance in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 155-174, October.
  11. Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James & Thaicharoen, Yunyong, 2003. "Institutional causes, macroeconomic symptoms: volatility, crises and growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 49-123, January.
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  13. Roberto FRENKEL, 2004. "Real exchange rate and employment in Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 19(223), pages 29-52.
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Cited by:
  1. Flávio, Vieira & MacDonald, Ronald, 2010. "A Panel Data Investigation of Real Exchange Rate Misalignment and Growth," SIRE Discussion Papers 2010-29, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  2. Mbaye, Samba, 2012. "Currency Undervaluation and Growth: Is there a Productivity Channel?," MPRA Paper 44261, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Camelia Minoiu & Patrick A. Imam, 2008. "Mauritius: A Competitiveness Assessment," IMF Working Papers 08/212, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Aliyu, Shehu Usman Rano, 2008. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Export Trade in Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation," MPRA Paper 13490, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 Feb 2009.
  5. Audrey Sallenave, 2010. "Real exchange rate misalignments and economic performance for the G20 countries," EconomiX Working Papers 2010-1, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
  6. Aderbal Oliveira Damasceno & Flávio Vilela Vieir, 2014. "Desalinhamento Cambial, Volatilidade Cambial E Crescimento Econômico: Uma Análise Para A Economia Brasileira (1995-2011)," Anais do XLI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 41th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 100, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  7. James Heintz & Robert Pollin, 2008. "Targeting Employment Expansion, Economic Growth and Development in Sub-Saharan Africa: Outlines of an Alternative Economic Programme for the Region," Published Studies targeting_employment_expa, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
  8. Robert Pollin & James Heintz, 2007. "Expanding Decent Employment in Kenya: The Role of Monetary Policy, Inflation Control, and the Exchange Rate," Country Study 6, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.
  9. Marcel Schröder, 2013. "Should developing countries undervalue their currencies?," Departmental Working Papers 2013-12, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.

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