Interest rates, exchange rates and international adjustment

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Interest rates, exchange rates and international adjustment

Author Info

Michael P Dooley
David Folkerts-Landau
Peter Garber

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Michael Dooley

Abstract

It is generally accepted that adjustment must occur to ultimately remove the imbalances from the international monetary system. The dispute has been between a view that the system will end abruptly and soon and a view that is will last for years more with a smooth adjustment in interest rates and exchange rates. Here, we presume that the basic system that has dominated at least the last five years will continue for years more, while converging to a sustainable equilibrium. With this system as a background, we examine the behavior of interest rates and exchange rates following a variety of shocks to the international monetary system. Our analysis suggests that real interest rates in the US and Europe will remain low relative to historical cyclical experience for an extended period but converge slowly toward normal levels. During this adjustment interval, the US will continue to absorb a disproportionate share of world savings. Moreover, after a substantial initial appreciation, the floating currencies remain constant relative to the dollar in the undisturbed background system. An improvement in the investment climate in Europe during the adjustment period would generate an immediate depreciation of the euro relative to the dollar. In real terms, the dollar and the floating currencies will eventually have to depreciate relative to the managed currencies. But most of the adjustment in the US trade account will come as US absorption responds to increases in real interest rates.

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Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Boston in its journal Conference Series ; [Proceedings].

Volume (Year): (2006)
Issue (Month): ()
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbcp:y:2006:n:51:x:5

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Paper
- Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter M. Garber, 2005. "Interest Rates, Exchange Rates and International Adjustment," NBER Working Papers 11771, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2000. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Working Papers 7777, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," International Trade 0012003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
- Maurice Obstfeld and Kenneth Rogoff., 2000. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C00-112, University of California at Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
- Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2000. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series 1010, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
- Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 339-412 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2004. "The Transfer Problem Revisited: Net Foreign Assets and Real Exchange Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(4), pages 841-857, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2000. "The Transfer Problem Revisited: Net Foreign Assets and Real Exchange Rates," Working Papers 062000, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
- Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2000. "The Transfer Problem Revisited: Net Foreign Assets and Real Exchange Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 2511, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Rey, Hélène, 2005. "From World Banker to World Venture Capitalist: US External Adjustment and The Exorbitant Privilege," CEPR Discussion Papers 5220, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & HÃ©lÃ¨ne Rey, 2005. "From World Banker to World Venture Capitalist: US External Adjustment and the Exorbitant Privilege," NBER Working Papers 11563, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & HÃ©lÃ¨ne Rey, 2007. "From World Banker to World Venture Capitalist: U.S. External Adjustment and the Exorbitant Privilege," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 11-66 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
Branson, William H. & Henderson, Dale W., 1985. "The specification and influence of asset markets," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 15, pages 749-805 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Barry Eichengreen, 2005. "Sterling's Past, Dollar's Future: Historical Perspectives on Reserve Currency Competition," NBER Working Papers 11336, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Dooley, Michael P & Isard, Peter, 1980. "Capital Controls, Political Risk, and Deviations from Interest-Rate Parity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(2), pages 370-84, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2003. "An Essay on the Revived Bretton Woods System," NBER Working Papers 9971, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Michael Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2005. "An essay on the revived Bretton Woods system," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Feb. [Downloadable!]
Maurice Obstfeld, 2004. "External Adjustment," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series 1052, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Maurice Obstfeld, 2004. "External Adjustment," NBER Working Papers 10843, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Maurico Obstfeld, 2004. "External adjustment," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 140(4), pages 541-568, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

Elias Papaioannou & Richard Portes & Gregorios Siourounis, 2006. "Optimal Currency Shares in International Reserves: The Impact of the Euro and the Prospects for the Dollar," NBER Working Papers 12333, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Elias Papaioannou & Richard Portes & Gregorios Siourounis, 2006. "Optimal currency shares in international reserves - the impact of the euro and the prospects for the dollar," Working Paper Series 694, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
- Papaioannou, Elias & Portes, Richard & Siourounis, Gregorios, 2006. "Optimal Currency Shares in International Reserves: The Impact of the Euro and the Prospects for the Dollar," CEPR Discussion Papers 5734, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Papaioannou, Elias & Portes, Richard & Siourounis, Gregorios, 2006. "Optimal currency shares in international reserves: The impact of the euro and the prospects for the dollar," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 508-547, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Paulo Gala, 2007. "Real Exchange Rate Levels And Economic Development: Theoretical Analysis And Empirical Evidence," Anais do XXXV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 35th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 037, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
Christian M. Oberpriller, 2007. "Exchange Rates and Global Imbalances: The Importance of Asset Valuation Effects and Interest Rate Changes," Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers 443, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
Christian M. Oberpriller, 2007. "Global Current Account Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustment: The Role of Oil Suppliers Valuation Effects and Interest Rate Changes," Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers 442, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
Jean-François Goux, 2008. "Ruptures épaisses et stationnarité en tendance : le cas du taux de change euro-dollar," Post-Print halshs-00333576_v1, HAL. [Downloadable!]
Paulo Gala & Claudio R. Lucinda, 2006. "Exchange Rate Misalignment And Growth: Old And New Econometric Evidence," Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 93, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Paulo Gala & Claudio R. Lucinda, 2006. "Exchange Rate Misalignment and Growth: Old and New Econometric Evidence," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 7(4), pages 165â187. [Downloadable!]
Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter M. Garber, 2008. "Will Subprime be a Twin Crisis for the United States?," NBER Working Papers 13978, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

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