IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/ifwasw/443.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Exchange rates and global imbalances: the importance of asset valuation effects and interest rate changes

Author

Listed:
  • Oberpriller, Christian M.

Abstract

this paper analyzes two effects which might have an important impact on a reduction of global external imbalances. These are valuation effects on the one hand and interest rate effects on the other hand. We use a four-region model that is based on the models by Obstfeld and Rogoff (2005) and Oberpriller (2007) to analyze the difference in the occurring exchange rate changes with and without valuation and interest rate effects under two different scenarios of narrowing global imbalances. The outcome is a reduced need for real dollar depreciation because the United States will largely benefit from valuation gains on their foreign assets while the effect that stems from interest rate changes works in the opposite direction but is not as strong as the valuation effect. The magnitude of valuation and interest rate effects reduce the need for real exchange rate depreciation by two to four percentage points.

Suggested Citation

  • Oberpriller, Christian M., 2007. "Exchange rates and global imbalances: the importance of asset valuation effects and interest rate changes," Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers 443, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwasw:443
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/27020/1/538712465.PDF
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michele Cavallo & Cédric Tille, 2006. "Could capital gains smooth a current account rebalancing?," Staff Reports 237, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    2. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2005. "Global Current Account Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustments," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 36(1), pages 67-146.
    3. Nouriel Roubini & Brad Setser, 2005. "The Sustainability of the US External Imbalances," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 6(01), pages 08-15, April.
    4. Oberpriller, Christian M., 2007. "Global current account imbalances and exchange rate adjustment: the role of oil suppliers," Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers 442, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    5. Michael Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2006. "Interest rates, exchange rates and international adjustment: BW II dynamics," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 293-302, December.
    6. Tille, Cédric, 2008. "Financial integration and the wealth effect of exchange rate fluctuations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 283-294, July.
    7. Cédric Tille, 2003. "The impact of exchange rate movements on U.S. foreign debt," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 9(Jan).
    8. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2007. "The external wealth of nations mark II: Revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970-2004," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 223-250, November.
    9. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter M. Garber, 2006. "Interest rates, exchange rates and international adjustment," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 51.
    10. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Hélène Rey, 2007. "From World Banker to World Venture Capitalist: US External Adjustment and the Exorbitant Privilege," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 11-66, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Lane, Philip & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, "undated". "External Wealth of Nations," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics extwealth, Boston College Department of Economics.
    12. William R. Cline, 2005. "United States as a Debtor Nation, The," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 3993, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Oberpriller, Christian M., 2007. "Global current account imbalances and exchange rate adjustment: the role of oil suppliers," Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers 442, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bergant, Katharina, 2021. "The role of stock-flow adjustment during the global financial crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    2. Pavlova, Anna & Rigobon, Roberto, 2010. "An asset-pricing view of external adjustment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 144-156, January.
    3. Lars Calmfors & Giancarlo Corsetti & Seppo Honkapohja & John Kay & Gilles Saint-Paul & Hans-Werner Sinn & Jan-Egbert Sturm & Xavier Vives, 2006. "Chapter 2: Global Imbalances," EEAG Report on the European Economy, CESifo, vol. 0, pages 50-67, March.
    4. Hickey, Ronan, 2007. "How Sustainable are Global Imbalances?," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 85-119, October.
    5. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2009. "Where did all the borrowing go? A forensic analysis of the U.S. external position," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 177-199, June.
    6. Marques, Luis B, 2007. "Welfare Implications of Exchange Rate Changes," MPRA Paper 5721, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Devereux, Michael B. & Sutherland, Alan, 2010. "Valuation effects and the dynamics of net external assets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 129-143, January.
    8. Ricardo Hausmann & Federico Sturzenegger, 2006. "Global Imbalances or Bad Accounting? The Missing Dark Matter in the Wealth of Nations," CID Working Papers 124, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    9. Katharina Bergant, 2017. "The Role of Stock-Flow Adjustment during the Global Financial Crisis," Trinity Economics Papers tep1317, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    10. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Rey, Hélène, 2014. "External Adjustment, Global Imbalances, Valuation Effects," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 585-645, Elsevier.
    11. Giancarlo Corsetti & Panagiotis T. Konstantinou, 2012. "What Drives US Foreign Borrowing? Evidence on the External Adjustment to Transitory and Permanent Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1062-1092, April.
    12. Notz, Stefan & Rosenkranz, Peter, 2021. "Business cycles in emerging markets: The role of liability dollarization and valuation effects," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 424-450.
    13. Konstantinou, Panagiotis Th., 2010. "Adjustment of US external imbalances: At what horizon?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 166-168, March.
    14. Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso, 2009. "The evolution of the Sino-American Co-dependency: modelling a regime switch in a growth setting," Department of Economics Working Papers 0905, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
    15. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2007. "Financial Integration, Financial Deepness and Global Imbalance," 2007 Meeting Papers 746, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Philip R. Lane & Jay C. Shambaugh, 2010. "Financial Exchange Rates and International Currency Exposures," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(1), pages 518-540, March.
    17. Dramane Coulibaly & Blaise Gnimassoun & Valérie Mignon, 2018. "The tale of two international phenomena: International migration and global imbalances," Working Papers 2018-02, CEPII research center.
    18. Ghironi, Fabio & Lee, Jaewoo & Rebucci, Alessandro, 2015. "The valuation channel of external adjustment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 86-114.
    19. Yongsung Chang & Sun-Bin Kim & Jaewoo Lee, 2013. "Accounting for Global Dispersion of Current Accounts," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(3), pages 477-496, July.
    20. Rogoff, Kenneth S. & Tashiro, Takeshi, 2015. "Japan’s exorbitant privilege," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 43-61.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    current account; exchange rates; valuation effects; global imbalances;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwasw:443. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwkiede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.