Will Subprime be a Twin Crisis for the United States?
AbstractWe identify incentives generated by the Bretton Woods II system that may have contributed to the sub-prime liquidity crisis now working its way through the international monetary system. We then evaluate the persistent conjecture that the liquidity crisis is or will become a balance of payments crisis for the United States. Given that it happens, the additional costs associated with a sudden stop of net capital flows to the United States could be quite substantial. But we observe that emerging market governments have continued to acquire US assets even as yields have fallen, and the incentives for continuing to do so remain strong. Moreover, the Bretton Woods II system, which has clearly been the most resilient of the forces driving current markets, continues to generate low real interest rates in industrial countries and growth in emerging markets that will help limit the damage from the liquidity crisis.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 13978.
Date of creation: May 2008
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
- Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter M. Garber, 2009. "Will Sub-Prime be a Twin Crisis for the United States?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 655-666, 09.
- F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order; Noneconomic International Organizations;; Economic Integration and Globalization: General
- F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
- F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2008-05-17 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2008-05-17 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MON-2008-05-17 (Monetary Economics)
- NEP-OPM-2008-05-17 (Open Economy Macroeconomic)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Michael P. Dooley & Peter M. Garber & David Folkerts-Landau, 2007. "The Two Crises of International Economics," NBER Working Papers 13197, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter M. Garber, 2005.
"Interest Rates, Exchange Rates and International Adjustment,"
NBER Working Papers
11771, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael P Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2006. "Interest rates, exchange rates and international adjustment," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 51.
- Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2003.
"An Essay on the Revived Bretton Woods System,"
NBER Working Papers
9971, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Huang, Rocco & Ratnovski, Lev, 2010.
"The dark side of bank wholesale funding,"
Working Paper Series
1223, European Central Bank.
- Piffaretti, Nadia F., 2009. "Reshaping the international monetary architecture : lessons from Keynes'plan," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5034, The World Bank.
- Astley, Mark & Giese, Julia & Hume, Michael & Kubelec, Chris, 2009. "Global imbalances and the financial crisis," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 49(3), pages 178-190.
- Huang, R. & Ratnovksi, L., 2009. "The Dark Side of Bank Wholesale Funding," Discussion Paper 2009-59 S, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.