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The Impact of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on European Union Trade

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  • Sapir, André
  • Sekkat, M. Khalid
  • Weber, Axel A

Abstract

The impact of exchange rate fluctuations on international trade has long been a major concern for policy-makers. This is particularly the case in Europe, where countries trade extensively with each other. The crisis that began in the Summer of 1992 generated increased exchange rate fluctuations and, therefore, renewed concerns about consequences for trade inside the European Union. This report assesses the likely impact of the exchange rate crisis on trade flows inside and outside the Union. The analysis indicates the need to distinguish between short-term oscillations (i.e. volatility) and medium-term fluctuations (i.e. misalignment). We find that the recent ERM crisis is likely to have had some negative impact on trade within the region, but this impact is probably quite small.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 1041.

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Date of creation: Nov 1994
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1041

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Related research

Keywords: EMS; Exchange Rates; Misalignments; Trade; Volatility;

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Cited by:
  1. Honohan, Patrick & Lane, Philip R, 1999. "Pegging to the Dollar and the Euro," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(3), pages 379-410, November.
  2. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Amina Lahrèche-Revil, 2003. "Trade Linkages and Exchange Rates in Asia: The Role of China," Working Papers 2003-21, CEPII research center.
  3. Whyman, Philip, 2002. "Living with the Euro: the consequences for world business," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 208-215, October.
  4. Anderton, Robert & Skudelny, Frauke, 2001. "Exchange rate volatility and euro area imports," Working Paper Series 0064, European Central Bank.
  5. Aliyu, Shehu Usman Rano, 2008. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Export Trade in Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation," MPRA Paper 13490, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 Feb 2009.
  6. Olimov, Ulugbek & Sirajiddinov, Nishanbay, 2008. "The Effects of the Real Exchange Rate Volatility and Misalignments on Foreign Trade Flows in Uzbekistan," Economics Discussion Papers 2008-29, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  7. Hallett, Andrew Hughes & Anthony, Myrvin L., 1997. "Exchange rate behaviour under the EMS regime: was there any systematic change?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 537-560, August.
  8. Amina Lahrèche-Révil & Juliette Milgram, 2006. "Exchange-rate policies and trade in the MENA countries," ThE Papers 06/07, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada..
  9. Khalid Sekkat, 2001. "On the Aggregate Impact of Exchange Rate Variability on EU Trade," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 2(1), pages 57-78, 02.
  10. Paul Grauwe & Frauke Skudelny, 2000. "The impact of EMU on trade flows," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 136(3), pages 381-402, 09.
  11. Gil-Pareja, Salvador & Llorca-Vivero, Rafael & Martínez-Serrano, José Antonio, 2008. "Trade effects of monetary agreements: Evidence for OECD countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 733-755, May.

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