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The Impact of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on European Union Trade

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Author Info
Sapir, André
Sekkat, M. Khalid
Weber, Axel A

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Abstract

The impact of exchange rate fluctuations on international trade has long been a major concern for policy-makers. This is particularly the case in Europe, where countries trade extensively with each other. The crisis that began in the Summer of 1992 generated increased exchange rate fluctuations and, therefore, renewed concerns about consequences for trade inside the European Union. This report assesses the likely impact of the exchange rate crisis on trade flows inside and outside the Union. The analysis indicates the need to distinguish between short-term oscillations (i.e. volatility) and medium-term fluctuations (i.e. misalignment). We find that the recent ERM crisis is likely to have had some negative impact on trade within the region, but this impact is probably quite small.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 1041.

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Date of creation: Nov 1994
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1041

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Related research
Keywords: EMS; Exchange Rates; Misalignments; Trade; Volatility;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
L16 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics; Macroeconomic Industrial Structure

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  1. Lane, P & Honohan, P, 1999. "Pegging To The Dollar And The Euro," Trinity Economics Papers 996, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Olimov, Ulugbek & Sirajiddinov, Nishanbay, 2008. "The Effects of the Real Exchange Rate Volatility and Misalignments on Foreign Trade Flows in Uzbekistan," Economics Discussion Papers 2008-29, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Marcelo de Paiva Abreu & Afonso S. Bevilaqua, 1995. "Macroeconomic coordination and economic integration: lessons for a Western Hemisphere Free Trade Area," Textos para discussão 340, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
  4. Agnes Benassy-Quere & Amina Lahreche-Revil, 2003. "Trade Linkages and Exchange Rates in Asia: The Role of China," Working Papers 2003-21, CEPII research center. [Downloadable!]
  5. Paul Grauwe & Frauke Skudelny, 2000. "The impact of EMU on trade flows," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 136(3), pages 381-402, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Afonso S. Bevilaqua, 1997. "Macroeconomic coordination and commercial integration in MERCOSUR," Textos para discussão 378, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil). [Downloadable!]
  7. Robert Anderton & Frauke Skudelny, 2001. "Exchange rate volatility and euro area imports," Working Paper Series 064, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  8. Amina Lahrèche-Révil & Juliette Milgram, 2006. "Exchange-rate policies and trade in the MENA countries," ThE Papers 06/07, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada.. [Downloadable!]
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