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Exchange rate volatility and euro area imports

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Author Info
Robert Anderton () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, Postfach 16 03 19, 60066 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
Frauke Skudelny () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, Postfach 16 03 19, 60066 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
Abstract

This paper estimates an import demand function for the euro area vis-a-vis its main extra-area trading partners which takes into account the possible impact of both intra- and extra-euro area exchange rate uncertainty. Our theoretical model captures various mechanisms by which exchange rate volatility may influence the demand for extra-euro area imports. If importers are risk averse, the model predicts not only a negative effect of exchange rate volatility, but also substitution possibilities between extra- and intra-area imports due to differences in the degree of extra- and intra-area exchange rate volatility. Using quarterly data for the past eleven years, panel estimates suggest that extra-area exchange rate volatility may have decreased extra-euro area imports by around 10 per cent. Finally, we also provide some limited evidence that differences in extra- and intra-area exchange rate volatility may have resulted in substitution between extra- and intra-area imports. JEL Classification: F15; F31.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 064.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: May 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20010064

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Related research
Keywords: Import demand; exchange rate uncertainty; monetary union.;

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Koray, Faik & Lastrapes, William D, 1989. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and U.S. Bilateral Trade: A VAR Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(4), pages 708-12, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Hartmann, Philipp, 1998. "The Currency Denomination of World Trade after European Monetary Union," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 424-454, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Anderton, Bob & Pesaran, Bahram & Wren-Lewis, Simon, 1992. "Imports, Output and the Demand for Manufactures," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 44(2), pages 175-86, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Kenen, Peter B & Rodrik, Dani, 1986. "Measuring and Analyzing the Effects of Short-term Volatility in Real Exchange Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(2), pages 311-15, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Andrew K. Rose, 1999. "One Money, One Market: Estimating the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade," NBER Working Papers 7432, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Sapir, André & Sekkat, M. Khalid & Weber, Axel A, 1994. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on European Union Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 1041, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Judson, Ruth A. & Owen, Ann L., 1999. "Estimating dynamic panel data models: a guide for macroeconomists," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 9-15, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Baron, David P, 1976. "Flexible Exchange Rates, Forward Markets, and the Level of Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(3), pages 253-66, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Arize A. C., 1998. "The Effects Of Exchange Rate Volatility On U.S. Imports: An Empirical Investigation," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 31-40, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Thursby, Jerry G & Thursby, Marie C, 1987. "Bilateral Trade Flows, the Linder Hypothesis, and Exchange Risk," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 488-95, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Kiviet, Jan F., 1995. "On bias, inconsistency, and efficiency of various estimators in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 53-78, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. O. Cushman, David, 1986. "Has exchange risk depressed international trade? The impact of third-country exchange risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 361-379, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Arize, Augustine C., 1998. "The long-run relationship between import flows and real exchange-rate volatility: The experience of eight European economies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 417-435. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Hooper, Peter & Kohlhagen, Steven W., 1978. "The effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the prices and volume of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 483-511, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Fountas, S. & Aristotelous, K., 1998. "Has the European Monetary System Led to More Exports? Evidence from Four European Union Countries," Department of Economics 31, National University of Ireland, Galway - Department of Economics.
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  1. Ettore Dorrucci & Marcel Fratzscher & Francesco Paolo Mongelli & Stefano Firpo, 2002. "European Integration: what lessons for other regions? The case of Latin America," Working Paper Series 185, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  2. Chit, Myint Moe & Rizov, Marian & Willenbockel, Dirk, 2008. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: New Empirical Evidence from the Emerging East Asian Economies," MPRA Paper 9014, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  3. Richard Baldwin & Frauke Skudelny & Daria Taglioni, 2005. "Trade effects of the euro - evidence from sectoral data," Working Paper Series 446, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. Sergio Rossi, 2004. "Monetary integration strategies and perspectives of new EU countries," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 443-469, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Paul De Grauwe & Francesco Paolo Mongelli, 2005. "Endogeneities of optimum currency areas - what brings countries sharing a single currency closer together?," Working Paper Series 468, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "De jure versus de facto Exchange Rate Stabilization in Central and Eastern Europe," International Finance 0404013, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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