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Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade: A Survey

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Author Info
Agathe Cote (Bank of Canada)
Abstract

This paper provides an extensive survey of the literature on exchange rate volatility and trade, examining both the theory that underlies the work in this area and the results of empirical studies published since 1988. Despite the widespread view that an increase in volatility will reduce the level of trade, this review reveals that the effects of volatility are ambiguous. There is no real consensus on either the direction or the size of the exchange rate volatility - trade level relationship. Overall, a larger number of studies find that volatility tends to reduce the level of trade, but when the effect is measured, it is found to be relatively small. Several reasons can explain this tenuous relationship: (i) even for risk-averse businesses, an increase in risk does not necessarily lead to a reduction in the risky activity, (ii) the availability of hedging techniques makes it possible for traders to avoid most of exchange risk at little cost, (iii) exchange rate volatility may actually offset some other forms of business risk, and (iv) exchange rate volatility can create profitable trading and investment opportunities. La presente etude offre un panorama des recherches faites sur les liens qui existent entre la volatilite des taux de change et les echanges internationaux. L'auteure y examine d'une part les fondements theoriques des travaux effectues dans ce domaine et, d'autre part, les resultats des etudes empiriques publiees depuis 1988. Meme si la perception generale est que l'accroissement de la volatilite des taux de change abaisse le niveau des echanges commerciaux, la presente etude montre que les effets de la volatilite sont ambigus. Un veritable consensus ne se degage ni sur le sens ni sur l'importance des liens entre la volatilite des taux de change et les echanges commerciaux. Dans l'ensemble, parmi les etudes consultees, la majorite arrivent a la conclusion que la volatilite du cours de la monnaie tend a abaisser le niveau des echanges, mais lorsque l'effet est mesure, on constate qu'il est relativement mineur. La faiblesse de ce lien peut s'expliquer de plusieurs facons : i) un accroissement du risque n'entraine pas forcement une diminution des activites a risque meme pour les entreprises qui ont une aversion pour le risque; ii) les techniques de couverture permettent aux entreprises de reduire considerablement, a peu de frais, le risque de change; iii) la volatilite des taux de change peut en fait compenser d'autres types de risque; et iv) la volatilite des taux de change peut creer des conditions propices a des echanges commerciaux et a des investissements rentables.

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Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 94-5.

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Koray, Faik & Lastrapes, William D, 1989. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and U.S. Bilateral Trade: A VAR Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(4), pages 708-12, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Anderson, Margot & Grier, David Alan, 1992. "Robust, Non-parametric Measures of Exchange Rate Variability," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 24(9), pages 951-58, September.
  5. Peree, Eric & Steinherr, Alfred, 1989. "Exchange rate uncertainty and foreign trade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1241-1264, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Baron, David P, 1976. "Fluctuating Exchange Rates and the Pricing of Exports," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(3), pages 425-38, September.
  7. Makin, John H, 1978. "Portfolio Theory and the Problem of Foreign Exchange Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(2), pages 517-34, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
  9. Dixit, Avinash K, 1989. "Entry and Exit Decisions under Uncertainty," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 620-38, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Viaene, Jean-Marie & de Vries, Casper G., 1992. "International trade and exchange rate volatility," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1311-1321, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Andreas Savvides, 1992. "Unanticipated exchange rate variability and the growth of international trade," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 128(3), pages 446-463, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Brada, Josef C & Mendez, Jose, 1988. "Exchange Rate Risk, Exchange Rate Regime and the Volume of International Trade," Kyklos, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(2), pages 263-80.
  13. Giovannini, Alberto, 1988. "Exchange rates and traded goods prices," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 45-68, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Victoria S. Farrell & Dean A. DeRosa & T. Ashby McCown, 1983. "Effects of exchange rate variability on international trade and other economic variables : a review of the literature," Staff Studies 130, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  15. Catherine Mann, 1989. "The effects of exchange rate trends and volatility on export prices: Industry examples from Japan, Germany, and the United States," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 125(3), pages 588-618, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Pagan, Adrian & Ullah, Aman, 1988. "The Econometric Analysis of Models with Risk Terms," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(2), pages 87-105, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Vikram Kumar, 1992. "Real effects of exchange risk on international trade," Working Paper 92-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
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  21. Kawai, Masahiro & Zilcha, Itzhak, 1986. "International trade with forward-futures markets under exchange rate and price uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1-2), pages 83-98, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. O. Cushman, David, 1986. "Has exchange risk depressed international trade? The impact of third-country exchange risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 361-379, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Asseery, A. & Peel, D. A., 1991. "The effects of exchange rate volatility on exports : Some new estimates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 173-177, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Viaene, J.M. & Vries De, C.G., 1987. "Exchange Rate Volatility and International Trade," Cahiers de recherche 8743, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  26. Franke, Gunter, 1991. "Exchange rate volatility and international trading strategy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 292-307, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  27. Hooper, Peter & Kohlhagen, Steven W., 1978. "The effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the prices and volume of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 483-511, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  28. Bini-Smaghi, Lorenzo, 1991. "Exchange Rate Variability and Trade: Why Is It So Difficult to Find Any Empirical Relationship?," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 23(5), pages 927-35, May.
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  30. Willett:, Thomas D., 1986. "Exchange-rate volatility, international trade, and resource allocation: A perspective on recent research," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(1, Supple), pages S101-S112, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  31. Kroner, Kenneth F. & Lastrapes, William D., 1993. "The impact of exchange rate volatility on international trade: Reduced form estimates using the GARCH-in-mean model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 298-318, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  32. Sercu, Piet & Vanhulle, Cynthia, 1992. "Exchange rate volatility, international trade, and the value of exporting firms," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 155-182, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  33. Belanger, D. & Gutierrez, S. & Racette, D. & Raynauld, J., 1990. "The Impact Of Exchange Rate Variability On Trade Flows: Further Results On Sectoral U.S. Imports From Canada," Papers 90-08, ECOLE DES HAUTES ETUDES COMMERCIALES (H.E.C.), MONTREAL-.
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  34. Lastrapes, William D. & Koray, Faik, 1990. "Exchange rate volatility and U.S. multilateral trade flows," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 341-362. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jeannine Bailliu & Robert Lafrance & Jean-François Perrault, 2002. "Does Exchange Rate Policy Matter for Growth?," Working Papers 02-17, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Hakan Berument & Nergiz Dinçer, 2005. "The Effects of Exchange Rate Risk on Economic Performance : The Turkish Experience," Departmental Working Papers 0513, Bilkent University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Luis Catão & Elisabetta Falcetti, 2002. "Determinants of Argentina’s External Trade," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 19-57, May. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Michael R. Pakko & Howard J. Wall, 2001. "Reconsidering the trade-creating effects of a currency union," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 37-46. [Downloadable!]
  5. Jonung, Lars & Sjöholm, Fredrik, 1998. "Should Finland and Sweden Form a Monetary Union?," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 224, Stockholm School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Shang-Jin Wei, 1998. "Currency Hedging and Goods Trade," NBER Working Papers 6742, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Katheryn Niles Russ, 2007. "Exchange Rate Volatility and First-Time Entry by Multinational Firms," NBER Working Papers 13659, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. David Bowman & Brian M. Doyle, 2003. "New Keynesian, open-economy models and their implications for monetary policy," International Finance Discussion Papers 762, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  9. Jeff M. Rogers & Pierre Siklos, 2001. "Foreign Exchange Market Intervention in Two Small Open Economies: The Canadian and Australian Experience," Research Paper Series 57, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. David Hargreaves & Andy Brookes & Carrick Lucas & Bruce White, 2000. "Can hedging insulate firms from exchange rate risk," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 63, March. [Downloadable!]
  11. Belke, Ansgar & Göcke, Matthias, 2004. "Real Options Effects on Employment: Does Exchange Rate Uncertainty Matter for Aggregation?," IZA Discussion Papers 1126, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2002. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," NBER Working Papers 8963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Peter Wilson & Henry Ng Shang Ren, 2006. "Managing Exchange Rate Volatility: A Comparative Counterfactual Analysis of Singapore 1994 to 2003," SCAPE Policy Research Working Paper Series 0608, National University of Singapore, Department of Economics, SCAPE. [Downloadable!]
  14. John Barkoulas & Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan, 1998. "Exchange Rate Effects on the Volume and Variability of Trade Flows," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 405., Boston College Department of Economics, revised 12 Sep 2001. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Silvana Tenreyro, 2003. "On the trade impact of nominal exchange rate volatility," Working Papers 03-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
  16. SaangJoon Baak, 2004. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade among the Asia Pacific Countries," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 724, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
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