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Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: New Empirical Evidence from the Emerging East Asian Economies

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  • Myint Moe Chit
  • Marian Rizov
  • Dirk Willenbockel

Abstract

Abstract This paper examines the impact of bilateral real exchange rate volatility on real exports of five emerging East Asian countries among themselves as well as to 13 industrialised countries. We recognise the specificity of the exports between the emerging East Asian and industrialised countries and employ a generalised gravity model. In the empirical analysis we use a panel comprising 25 years of quarterly data and perform unit-root and cointegration tests to verify the long-run relationship among the variables. The results provide strong evidence that exchange rate volatility has a negative impact on the exports of emerging East Asian countries. In addition, the results suggest that the pattern of bilateral exports is influenced by third-country variables. An increase in the price competitiveness of other emerging East Asian countries has a negative impact on a country's exports to a destination market, but the magnitude of the impact is relatively small. These results are robust across different estimation techniques and do not depend on the variable chosen to proxy exchange rate uncertainty. The results of the GMM-IV estimation also confirm the negative impact of exchange rate volatility on exports and suggest that this negative relationship is not driven by simultaneous causality bias. Copyright 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd. Journal compilation 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal World Economy.

Volume (Year): 33 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 (02)
Pages: 239-263

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Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:33:y:2010:i:2:p:239-263

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Cited by:
  1. Ana María Iregui & Luis Fernando Melo V. & María Teresa Ramírez, 2013. "Efecto de la volatilidad y del desalineamiento de la tasa de cambio real sobre la actividad de las empresas en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 801, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  2. Marc Auboin & Michele Ruta, 2012. "The Relationship between Exchange Rates and International Trade: A Literature Review," CESifo Working Paper Series 3868, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. Benjamin Keddad, 2013. "Assessing Asian Exchange Rates Coordination under Regional Currency Basket System," Working Papers halshs-00862254, HAL.
  4. Mona Haddad & Cosimo Pancaro, 2010. "Can Real Exchange Rate Undervaluation Boost Exports and Growth in Developing Countries? Yes, But Not for Long," World Bank Other Operational Studies 10178, The World Bank.
  5. Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Kimura, Fukunari, 2009. "The effect of exchange rate volatility on international trade in East Asia," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 395-406, December.
  6. Benjamin Keddad, 2013. "Exchange rate coordination in Asia under regional currency basket systems," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(4), pages 2913-2929.
  7. P., Srinivasan & M., Kalaivani, 2012. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Export Growth in India: An Empirical Investigation," MPRA Paper 43828, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Veysel Avsar & Kemal Turkcan, 2013. "Exchange Rate Volatility and U.S. Auto-Industry Exports: A Panel Cointegration Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 3(4), pages 772 - 787.
  9. Nishimura, Yusaku & Hirayama, Kenjiro, 2013. "Does exchange rate volatility deter Japan-China trade? Evidence from pre- and post-exchange rate reform in China," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25, pages 90-101.
  10. Nilanjan Banik & Khanindra Ch. Das, 2014. "The Location Substitution Effect: Does it Apply for China?," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 15(1), pages 59-75, March.
  11. Oxana Babecká Kucharčuková & Jan Babecký & Martin Raiser, 2012. "Gravity Approach for Modelling International Trade in South-Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States: The Role of Geography, Policy and Institutions," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 277-301, April.
  12. Goudarzi, Mostafa & Khanarinejad, Komeil & Ardakani, Zahra, 2012. "Investigation the Role of Exchange Rate Volatility on Iran's Agricultural Exports (Case Study: Date, Pistachio and Saffron)," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 4(1), March.
  13. Pomfret, Richard & Pontines, Victor, 2013. "Exchange Rate Policy and Regional Trade Agreements: A Case of Conflicted Interests?," ADBI Working Papers 436, Asian Development Bank Institute.
  14. Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Martin Raiser, 2010. "A Gravity Approach to Modelling International Trade in South-Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States: The Role of Geography, Policy and Institutions," Working Papers 2010/04, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  15. Abdul Jalil Khan & Parvez Azim & Shabib Haider Syed, 2014. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Trade: A Panel Study on Pakistan’s Trading Partners," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 19(1), pages 31-66, Jan-June.
  16. Samba Mbaye, 2012. "Beggar-thy-Neighbor Effects of Currency Undervaluation: Is China the Tip of the Iceberg?," Working Papers halshs-00761380, HAL.
  17. Ana María Iregui B. & Luis Fernando Melo V. & María Teresa Ramírez G. & Carmen Cecilia Delgado R., 2013. "El efecto de la volatilidad y del desalineamiento de la tasa de cambio real sobre la actividad de las empresas en Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 011106, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  18. Tang, Hsiao Chink, 2011. "Intra-Asia Exchange Rate Volatility and Intra-Asia Trade: Evidence by Type of Goods," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 90, Asian Development Bank.
  19. Kafle, Kashi R. & Kennedy, P. Lynn, 2012. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Bilateral Agricultural Trade Flows: The Case of the United States and OECD Countries," 2012 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2012, Birmingham, Alabama 119736, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.

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