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Some Further Evidence on Exchange-Rate Volatility and Exports

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Author Info
George Hondroyiannis (Bank of Greece, Economic Research Department and Harokopio University)
P.A.V.B. Swamy (US Bureau of Labour Statistics)
George S. Tavlas () (Bank of Greece, Economic Research Department)
Michael Ulan (Department of State)

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Abstract

The relationship between exchange-rate volatility and aggregate export volumes for 12 industrial economies is examined using a model that includes real export earnings of oil-producing economies as a determinant of industrial-country export volumes. A supposition underlying the model is that, given their levels of economic development, oil-exporters’ income elasticities of demand for industrial-country exports might differ from those of industrial countries. Five estimation techniques, including a generalized method of moments (GMM) and random coefficient (RC) estimation, are employed on panel data covering the estimation period 1977:1-2003:4 using three measures of volatility. In contrast to recent studies employing panel data, we do not find a single instance in which volatility has a negative and significant impact on trade.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Bank of Greece in its series Working Papers with number 28.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2005
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Handle: RePEc:bog:wpaper:28

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Related research
Keywords: Exchange-rate volatility; Trade; Random-coefficient estimation; Generalized method of moments; Panel;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data
F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Chou, W. L., 2000. "Exchange Rate Variability and China's Exports," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 61-79, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Swamy, P. A. V. B. & Tavlas, George S., 1994. "Connections between GARCH and stochastic coefficients (SC) models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 7-10, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. P. Swamy & George Tavlas, 2005. "Theoretical conditions under which monetary policies are effective and practical obstacles to their verification," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 999-1005, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Staff Team, 1984. "Exchange Rate Volatility and World Trade," IMF Occasional Papers 28, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Swamy, P. A. V. B. & Tinsley, P. A., 1980. "Linear prediction and estimation methods for regression models with stationary stochastic coefficients," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 103-142, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Swamy, P.A.V.B. & Tavlas, George S. & Chang, I-Lok, 2005. "How stable are monetary policy rules: estimating the time-varying coefficients in monetary policy reaction function for the US," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 575-590, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. P. Swamy & I-Lok Chang & Jatinder Mehta & George Tavlas, 2003. "Correcting for Omitted-Variable and Measurement-Error Bias in Autoregressive Model Estimation with Panel Data," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 225-253, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. P. Swamy & George Tavlas, 2007. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and Inflation Expectations: Re-Specification and Interpretation," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 293-306, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Azim M. Sadikov & Li Zeng & Peter B. Clark & Shang-Jin Wei & Natalia T. Tamirisa, 2004. "A New Look at Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade Flows," IMF Occasional Papers 235, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia, 1999. "Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Trade Flows: Evidence from the European Union," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan Journals, vol. 46(3), pages 5. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Stephen G. Hall & Nicholas G. Zonzilos, 2003. "An Indicator Measuring Underlying Economic Activity in Greece," Working Papers 04, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
  14. Bailey, Martin J. & Tavlas, George S. & Ulan, Michael, 1987. "The impact of exchange-rate volatility on export growth: Some theoretical considerations and empirical results," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 225-243. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Swamy, P.A.V.B. & Tavlas, George S., 2006. "A Note On Muth'S Rational Expectations Hypothesis: A Time-Varying Coefficient Interpretation," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(03), pages 415-425, June. [Downloadable!]
  16. Sophocles N. Brissimis & George Hondroyiannis & P.A.V.B. Swamy & George S. Tavlas, 2003. "Empirical Modelling of Money Demand in Periods of Structural Change: The Case of Greece," Working Papers 01, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  17. I-Lok Chang & P.A.V.B. Swamy & Charles Hallahan & George S. Tavlas, 2000. "A Computational Approach to Finding Causal Economic Laws," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 16(1/2), pages 105-136, October. [Downloadable!]
  18. Rose, Andrew K, 1999. "One Money, One Market: Estimating the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 2329, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  19. McKenzie, Michael D, 1999. " The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade Flows," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 13(1), pages 71-106, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. George S. Tavlas & P.A.V.B. Swamy, 2006. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and Inflation Expectations: Re-Specification and Interpretation," Working Papers 34, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Chit, Myint Moe & Rizov, Marian & Willenbockel, Dirk, 2008. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: New Empirical Evidence from the Emerging East Asian Economies," MPRA Paper 9014, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  3. Christos Papazoglou, 2005. "Real Exchange Rate Dynamics and Output Contraction under Transition," Working Papers 29, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
  4. Sven W. Arndt, 2006. "Regional Currency Arrangements in North America," Working Papers 40, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Hans Genberg, 2006. "Exchange-Rate Arrangements and Financial Integration in East Asia: On a Collision Course?," Working Papers 41, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Richard N. Cooper & Michael Bordo & Harold James, 2006. "What About a World Currency? Proposal for a Common Currency among Rich Democracies. One World Money, Then and Now," Working Papers 44, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
  7. Andreas S. Andreou & George A. Zombanakis, 2006. "Computational Intelligence in Exchange-Rate Forecasting," Working Papers 49, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
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