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Some Further Evidence on Exchange-Rate Volatility and Exports

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Author Info

  • George Hondroyiannis

    (Bank of Greece, Economic Research Department and Harokopio University)

  • P.A.V.B. Swamy

    (US Bureau of Labour Statistics)

  • George S. Tavlas

    ()
    (Bank of Greece, Economic Research Department)

  • Michael Ulan

    (Department of State)

Abstract

The relationship between exchange-rate volatility and aggregate export volumes for 12 industrial economies is examined using a model that includes real export earnings of oil-producing economies as a determinant of industrial-country export volumes. A supposition underlying the model is that, given their levels of economic development, oil-exporters’ income elasticities of demand for industrial-country exports might differ from those of industrial countries. Five estimation techniques, including a generalized method of moments (GMM) and random coefficient (RC) estimation, are employed on panel data covering the estimation period 1977:1-2003:4 using three measures of volatility. In contrast to recent studies employing panel data, we do not find a single instance in which volatility has a negative and significant impact on trade.

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File URL: http://www.bankofgreece.gr/BogEkdoseis/Paper200528.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Greece in its series Working Papers with number 28.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bog:wpaper:28

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Web page: http://www.bankofgreece.gr
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Related research

Keywords: Exchange-rate volatility; Trade; Random-coefficient estimation; Generalized method of moments; Panel;

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References

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  1. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
  2. Bailey, Martin J. & Tavlas, George S. & Ulan, Michael, 1987. "The impact of exchange-rate volatility on export growth: Some theoretical considerations and empirical results," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 225-243.
  3. Andrew K. Rose, 1999. "One Money, One Market: Estimating the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade," NBER Working Papers 7432, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. George S. Tavlas & P.A.V.B. Swamy, 2006. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and Inflation Expectations: Re-Specification and Interpretation," Working Papers 34, Bank of Greece.
  5. McKenzie, Michael D, 1999. " The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade Flows," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 71-106, February.
  6. Swamy, P. A. V. B. & Tavlas, George S., 1994. "Connections between GARCH and stochastic coefficients (SC) models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 7-10, September.
  7. Sophocles N. Brissimis & George Hondroyiannis & P. A. V. B. Swamy & George S. Tavlas, 2003. "Empirical Modelling of Money Demand in Periods of Structural Change: The Case of Greece," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(5), pages 605-628, December.
  8. Reza Siregar & Ramkishen Rajan, 2002. "Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on IndonesiaÂ’s Trade Performance in the 1990s," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2002-05, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
  9. P. Swamy & I-Lok Chang & Jatinder Mehta & George Tavlas, 2003. "Correcting for Omitted-Variable and Measurement-Error Bias in Autoregressive Model Estimation with Panel Data," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 22(2), pages 225-253, October.
  10. Swamy, P.A.V.B. & Tavlas, George S., 2006. "A Note On Muth'S Rational Expectations Hypothesis: A Time-Varying Coefficient Interpretation," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(03), pages 415-425, June.
  11. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia, 1999. "Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Trade Flows: Evidence from the European Union," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(3), pages 5.
  12. I-Lok Chang & P.A.V.B. Swamy & Charles Hallahan & George S. Tavlas, 2000. "A Computational Approach to Finding Causal Economic Laws," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 16(1/2), pages 105-136, October.
  13. P. Swamy & George Tavlas, 2005. "Theoretical conditions under which monetary policies are effective and practical obstacles to their verification," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 999-1005, 06.
  14. Hans M. Amman & David A. Kendrick, . "Computational Economics," Online economics textbooks, SUNY-Oswego, Department of Economics, number comp1, January.
  15. Swamy, P. A. V. B. & Tinsley, P. A., 1980. "Linear prediction and estimation methods for regression models with stationary stochastic coefficients," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 103-142, February.
  16. Peter B. Clark & Shang-Jin Wei & Natalia T. Tamirisa & Azim M. Sadikov & Li Zeng, 2004. "A New Look at Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade Flows," IMF Occasional Papers 235, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
  18. Swamy, P.A.V.B. & Tavlas, George S. & Chang, I-Lok, 2005. "How stable are monetary policy rules: estimating the time-varying coefficients in monetary policy reaction function for the US," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 575-590, April.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. P. Swamy & George Tavlas, 2007. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and Inflation Expectations: Re-Specification and Interpretation," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 293-306, May.
  2. Chit, Myint Moe & Rizov, Marian & Willenbockel, Dirk, 2008. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: New Empirical Evidence from the Emerging East Asian Economies," MPRA Paper 9014, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. John Williamson, 2006. "A worldwide system of reference rates," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 341-352, December.
  4. Marc Auboin & Michele Ruta, 2012. "The Relationship between Exchange Rates and International Trade: A Literature Review," CESifo Working Paper Series 3868, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Otmar Issing, 2006. "Europe's Hard Fix: The Euro Area," Working Papers 39, Bank of Greece.
  6. Hans Genberg, 2006. "Exchange-Rate Arrangements and Financial Integration in East Asia: On a Collision Course?," Working Papers 41, Bank of Greece.
  7. nnamdi, Kelechi & ifionu, Ebele, 2013. "Exchange rate volatility and exchange rate uncertainty in Nigeria: a financial econometric analysis (1970- 2012)," MPRA Paper 48316, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2013.
  8. George A. Christodoulakis & Stephen E Satchell, 2006. "Exact Elliptical Distributions for Models of Conditionally Random Financial Volatility," Working Papers 32, Bank of Greece.
  9. Alexandros E. Milionis, 2006. "An Alternative Definition of Market Efficiency and some Comments on its Empirical Testing," Working Papers 50, Bank of Greece.

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