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Estimating Trade Flows: Trading Partners and Trading Volumes

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Author Info
Elhanan Helpman
Marc Melitz
Yona Rubinstein

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Abstract

We develop a simple model of international trade with heterogeneous firms that is consistent with a number of stylized features of the data. In particular, the model predicts positive as well as zero trade flows across pairs of countries, and it allows the number of exporting firms to vary across destination countries. As a result, the impact of trade frictions on trade flows can be decomposed into the intensive and extensive margins, where the former refers to the trade volume per exporter and the latter refers to the number of exporters. This model yields a generalized gravity equation that accounts for the self-selection of firms into export markets and their impact on trade volumes. We then develop a two-stage estimation procedure that uses a selection equation into trade partners in the first stage and a trade flow equation in the second. We implement this procedure parametrically, semi-parametrically, and non-parametrically, showing that in all three cases the estimated effects of trade frictions are similar. Importantly, our method provides estimates of the intensive and extensive margins of trade. We show that traditional estimates are biased, and that most of the bias is not due to selection but rather due to the omission of the extensive margin. Moreover, the effect of the number of exporting firms varies across country pairs according to their characteristics. This variation is large, and particularly so for trade between developed and less developed countries and between pairs of less developed countries.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 12927.

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Date of creation: Feb 2007
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12927

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies
F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Country and Industry Studies of Trade

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References listed on IDEAS
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Lawless, Martina & Whelan, Karl, 2007. "A Note on Trade Costs and Distance," MPRA Paper 5804, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  2. Persson, Maria, 2007. "Trade Facilitation and the EU-ACP Economic Partnership Agreements: Who Has the Most to Gain?," Working Papers 2007:8, Lund University, Department of Economics, revised 01 Oct 2007. [Downloadable!]
  3. Richard Baldwin & James Harrigan, 2007. "Zeros, Quality and Space: Trade Theory and Trade Evidence," NBER Working Papers 13214, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Andrew B. Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen & Stephen J. Redding & Peter K. Schott, 2007. "Firms in International Trade," NBER Working Papers 13054, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Kristian Behrens & Cem Ertur & Wilfried Koch, 2007. "Dual' gravity: Using spatial econometrics to control for multilateral resistance," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-501, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer, 2007. "The Economic Consequences of Legal Origins," NBER Working Papers 13608, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Guy Michaels & Xiaojia Zhi, 2007. "Freedom Fries," CEP Discussion Papers dp0815, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
  8. Jelle Brouwer & Richard Paap & Jean-Marie Viaene, 2007. "The Trade and FDI Effects of EMU Enlargement," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-077/2, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  9. Jelle Brouwer & Richard Paap & Jean-Marie Viaene, 2007. "The Trade and FDI Effects of EMU Enlargement," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
  10. Michaels, Guy & Zhi, Xiaojia, 2007. "Freedom Fries," CEPR Discussion Papers 6380, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Volker Nitsch, 2007. "Die Another Day: Duration in German Import Trade," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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