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Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on IndonesiaÂ’s Trade Performance in the 1990s

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  • Reza Siregar

    (School of Economics, University of Adelaide, Australia)

  • Ramkishen Rajan

    (School of Economics, University of Adelaide, Australia)

Abstract

Whether a real devaluation ultimately proves to be expansionary or contractionary depends on whether the boost given to the exportables sector offsets any possible output-depressing effects that may accompany the expenditure-switching policy. Failure of the exportables sector to adequately respond to the price incentives is a virtual guarantee that devaluation will be contractionary. This appears to have been the experience of Indonesia, the country worst hit by the crisis of 1997-98. This paper explores whether the increased exchange rate variability of the Indonesian rupiah post 1997 may have been a cause for the countryÂ’s poor export performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Reza Siregar & Ramkishen Rajan, 2002. "Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on IndonesiaÂ’s Trade Performance in the 1990s," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2002-05, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:adl:cieswp:2002-05
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    Cited by:

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    3. Balázs Égert & Amalia Morales‐Zumaquero, 2008. "Exchange Rate Regimes, Foreign Exchange Volatility, and Export Performance in Central and Eastern Europe: Just another Blur Project?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 577-593, August.
    4. Kamal P. Upadhyaya & Dharmendra Dhakal & Franklin G. Mixon, Jr., 2020. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: Some New Estimates From the Asean-5," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 54(1), pages 65-73, January-M.
    5. Reza Siregar & Victor Pontines & Nurulhuda Mohd Hussain, 2010. "The US Sub-prime Crises and Extreme Exchange Market Pressures in Asia," Staff Papers, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre, number sp75.
    6. George Hondroyiannis & P.A.V.B. Swamy & George Tavlas & Michael Ulan, 2008. "Some Further Evidence on Exchange-Rate Volatility and Exports," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 144(1), pages 151-180, April.
    7. Balogun, Emmanuel Dele, 2007. "Exchange rate policy and export performance of WAMZ countries," MPRA Paper 6233, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Shinta Fitriani, 2017. "The Exchange Rate Volatility And Export Performance: The Case Of Indonesia’S Exports To Japan And Us," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 20(1), pages 1-22, July.
    9. Linh T.D. Huynh & Hien Thanh Hoang, 2019. "Effects of exchange rate volatility on bilateral import performance of Vietnam: A dynamic Generalised method of Moments panel approach," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 88-110, January.
    10. Naseeem, N.A.M & Tan, Hui & Mohd, Siti, 2010. "Exchange Rate Regime, Exchange Rate Variability and Flows of Malaysia’s Foreign Trade," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 44, pages 35-49.
    11. V Polodoo & B Seetanah & Sannassee R. V, 2016. "Exchange rate volatility and manufacturing trade: Evidence from Africa," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 50(5), pages 241-256, Special I.
    12. Eslamloueyan, Karim & Fatemifar, Neda, 2021. "Does deeper financial integration lead to macroeconomic and financial instability in Asia?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 437-451.
    13. Balázs Égert & Amalia Morales-Zumaquero, 2005. "Exchange Rate Regimes, Foreign Exchange Volatility and Export Performance in Central and Eastern Europe," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 76-97.
    14. Prasertnukul, Weera & Kim, Donghun & Kakinaka, Makoto, 2010. "Exchange rates, price levels, and inflation targeting: Evidence from Asian countries," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 173-182, August.
    15. Sakli Hniya & Ahlem Boubker & Fatma Mrad & Sawssen Nafti, 2021. "The Impact of Real Exchange Rate Volatility on Foreign Direct Investment Inflows in Tunisia," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 11(5), pages 52-67.
    16. Reza Siregar & Victor Pontines, 2005. "Incidences of Speculative Attacks on Rupiah During The Pre- and Post-1997 Financial Crisis," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2005-04, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
    17. Ehikioya Benjamin Ighodalo, 2019. "The impact of exchange rate volatility on the Nigerian economic growth: An empirical investigation," Journal of Economics and Management, Sciendo, vol. 37(3), pages 45-68, September.
    18. Arief Bustaman & Kankesu Jayanthakumaran, 2006. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Indonesia’s Exports to the USA: An Application of ARDL Bounds Testing Procedure," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 200610, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Dec 2006.
    19. Veysel Avsar & Kemal Turkcan, 2013. "Exchange Rate Volatility and U.S. Auto-Industry Exports: A Panel Cointegration Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 3(4), pages 772-787.
    20. Rudy Rahmaddi & Masaru Ichihashi, 2011. "How Do Foreign and Domestic Demand Affect Exports Performance? An Econometric Investigation of Indonesia's Exports," IDEC DP2 Series 1-4, Hiroshima University, Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation (IDEC), revised Jan 2012.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Devaluation; Exports; Imports; Trade; Indonesia; Volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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