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The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and Inflation Expectations: Re-Specification and Interpretation

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Author Info
P. Swamy
George Tavlas ()

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s00199-006-0100-z
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Article provided by Springer in its journal Economic Theory.

Volume (Year): 31 (2007)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 293-306
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Handle: RePEc:spr:joecth:v:31:y:2007:i:2:p:293-306

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Related research
Keywords: Time-varying-coefficient model; Inflation-unemployment trade-off; “Objective” probability; Spurious correlation; Rational expectation; Coefficient driver; C51; E31; E42; E50;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Panayiotis P. Athanasoglou & Sophocles N. Brissimis & Matthaios D. Delis, 2005. "Bank-Specific, Industry-Specific and Macroeconomic Determinants of Bank Profitability," Working Papers 25, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Harris Dellas & George Tavlas, 2004. "Wage Rigidity and Monetary Union," Working Papers 12, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Basmann, R. L., 1988. "Causality tests and observationally equivalent representations of econometric models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 69-104. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Mankiw, N Gregory, 2001. "The Inexorable and Mysterious Tradeoff between Inflation and Unemployment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(471), pages C45-61, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 2139, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Eleni Angelopoulou, 2005. "The Comparative Performance of Q-type and Dynamic Models of Firm Investment: Empirical Evidence from the UK," Working Papers 27, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
  7. Robert J. Gordon, 1998. "Foundations of the Goldilocks Economy: Supply Shocks and the Time-Varying NAIRU," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1998-2), pages 297-346. [Downloadable!]
  8. Dimitrios Sideris, 2004. "Testing for Long-Run PPP in a System Context: Evidence for the US, Germany and Japan," Working Papers 19, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
  9. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Theodora S. Kosma, 2005. "Market Power, Innovative Activity and Exchange Rate Pass-Through," Working Papers 22, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
  10. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. George Stubos & Ioannis Tsikripis, 2005. "Regional Integration Challenges in South East Europe: Banking Sector Trends," Working Papers 24, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
  12. George Hondroyiannis & Sophia Lazaretou, 2004. "Inflation persistence during periods of structural change - an assessment using Greek data," Working Paper Series 370, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  13. George A. Christodoulakis & Stephen E Satchell, 2006. "Exact Elliptical Distributions for Models of Conditionally Random Financial Volatility," Working Papers 32, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
  14. Nicholas G. Zonzilos, 2004. "Econometric Modelling at the Bank of Greece," Working Papers 14, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
  15. Zellner, Arnold, 1979. "Causality and econometrics," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 9-54, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Dellas, Harris & Tavlas, George, 2005. "The global implications of regional exchange rate regimes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 243-255, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  17. Panayotis Kapopoulos & Sophia Lazaretou, 2005. "Does Corporate Ownership Structure Matter for Economic Growth? A Cross-Country Analysis," Working Papers 21, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  18. I-Lok Chang & P.A.V.B. Swamy & Charles Hallahan & George S. Tavlas, 2000. "A Computational Approach to Finding Causal Economic Laws," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 16(1/2), pages 105-136, October. [Downloadable!]
  19. Zellner, Arnold, 1988. "Causality and causal laws in economics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 7-21. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Sophia Lazaretou, 2004. "The Drachma, Foreign Creditors and the International Monetary System: Tales of a Currency during the 19th and the Early 20th Century," Working Papers 16, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
  21. Pratt, John W. & Schlaifer, Robert, 1988. "On the interpretation and observation of laws," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 23-52. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Christos Papazoglou, 2005. "Real Exchange Rate Dynamics and Output Contraction under Transition," Working Papers 29, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
  23. Dimitrios Sideris & Nicholas G. Zonzilos, 2005. "The Greek Model of the European System of Central Banks Multi-Country Model," Working Papers 20, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
  24. Theodoros S. Papaspyrou, 2004. "EMU Strategies: Lessons from Past Experience in View of EU Enlargement," Working Papers 11, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
  25. P. Swamy & George Tavlas, 2005. "Theoretical conditions under which monetary policies are effective and practical obstacles to their verification," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 999-1005, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 2002. "The NAIRU in Theory and Practice," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1963, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  27. Thanasis N. Christodoulopoulos & Ioulia Grigoratou, 2005. "Measuring Liquidity in the Greek Government Securities Market," Working Papers 23, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
  28. George A. Christodoulakis & Emmanuel C. Mamatzakis, 2005. "The European Union GDP Forecast Rationality under Asymmetric Preferences," Working Papers 30, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
  29. George Hondroyiannis & P.A.V.B. Swamy & George S. Tavlas & Michael Ulan, 2005. "Some Further Evidence on Exchange-Rate Volatility and Exports," Working Papers 28, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
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  30. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Dimitris A. Sideris & Fragiska K. Voumvaki, 2004. "Testing Long-Run Purchasing Power Parity under Exchange Rate Targeting," Working Papers 15, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
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  31. Swamy, P.A.V.B. & Tavlas, George S., 2006. "A Note On Muth'S Rational Expectations Hypothesis: A Time-Varying Coefficient Interpretation," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(03), pages 415-425, June. [Downloadable!]
  32. Stephen G. Hall & George Hondroyiannis, 2006. "Measuring the Correlation of Shocks betweem the EU15 and the New Member Countries," Working Papers 31, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
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  33. Douglas O. Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "How Precise Are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 195-246 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  34. Yiannis Stournaras, 2005. "Aggregate Supply and Demand, the Real Exchange Rate and Oil Price Denomination," Working Papers 26, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Stephen G Hall & George Hondroyiannis & P.A.V.B. Swamy & George S. Tavlas, 2008. "A Portfolio Balance Approach to Euro-Area Money Demand in a Time-Varying Environment," Discussion Papers in Economics 08/9, Department of Economics, University of Leicester. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. George Hondroyiannis & P.A.V.B. Swamy & George Tavlas & Michael Ulan, 2008. "Some Further Evidence on Exchange-Rate Volatility and Exports," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 144(1), pages 151-180, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. George Hondroyiannis & P.A.V.B. Swamy & George S. Tavlas, 2007. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and Lagged Inflation: A Case of Spurious Correlation?," Working Papers 57, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Richard N. Cooper & Michael Bordo & Harold James, 2006. "What About a World Currency? Proposal for a Common Currency among Rich Democracies. One World Money, Then and Now," Working Papers 44, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
  5. Andreas S. Andreou & George A. Zombanakis, 2006. "Computational Intelligence in Exchange-Rate Forecasting," Working Papers 49, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
  6. George S. Tavlas, 2008. "The Benefits and Costs of Monetary Union in Southern Africa: A Critical Survey of the Literature," Working Papers 70, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Hans Genberg, 2006. "Exchange-Rate Arrangements and Financial Integration in East Asia: On a Collision Course?," Working Papers 41, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Sven W. Arndt, 2006. "Regional Currency Arrangements in North America," Working Papers 40, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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