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Je t'aime, moi non plus : Bilateral Opinions and International Trade

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  • Anne-Célia Disdier
  • Thierry Mayer

Abstract

Cet article étudie la relation existant entre le commerce international et les opinions. Les auteurs utilisent pour ce faire les sondages de l’opinion publique Eurobaromètre, publiés par la Commission Européenne, qui fournissent des données sur la part de la population dans chaque pays membre de l’Union Européenne en faveur de l’élargissement à chaque PECO candidat à l’adhésion. Les résultats suggèrent tout d’abord que les opinions bilatérales ont un effet statistiquement robuste et relativement important sur les importations, même lorsque les auteurs contrôlent les différentes formes de proximité existant entre les pays. Ils interprètent cet effet comme le reflet d’un impact positif de “l’affinité bilatérale†sur la structure des échanges. Ils montrent également qu’il est possible d’expliquer en partie la variance des opinions bilatérales observée au sein de leur échantillon. Enfin, ils proposent une analyse préliminaire de la relation de causalité entre les opinions bilatérales et les importations.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CEPII research center in its series Working Papers with number 2006-01.

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Date of creation: Jan 2006
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Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2006-01

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Keywords: Gravity model; enlargement; International trade;

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References

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