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Who is in favor of enlargement? Determinants of support for EU membership in the candidate countries' referenda

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  • Doyle, Orla
  • Fidrmuc, Jan

Abstract

We analyze support for EU membership as expressed in voting patterns in the candidate countries’ referenda on EU membership, using regional referendum results and individual survey data on voting intentions. We find that favorable individual and regional characteristics are positively correlated with support for accession and voter participation. In contrast, those who should benefit from future EU transfers are less likely to vote and/or support EU membership. We argue that voters in the candidate countries assign greater weight on future benefits from liberalization and integration than on potential gains through redistribution. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn in its series ZEI Working Papers with number B 04-2004.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:zeiwps:b042004

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Keywords: Voting; referendum; EU enlargement; integration;

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  1. Doyle, Orla & Fidrmuc, Jan, 2003. "Anatomy of Voting Behaviour and Attitudes During Post-Communist Transition Czech Republic 1990-98," CEPR Discussion Papers 3801, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Arjan Lejour & Ruud de Mooij & Richard Nahuis, 2001. "EU enlargement: economic implications for countries and industries," CPB Document 11, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  3. Fritz Breuss, 2001. "Macroeconomic Effects of EU Enlargement on Old and New Members," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 74(11), pages 655-666, November.
  4. Heijdra, Ben J. & Keuschnigg, Christian & Kohler, Wilhelm, 2002. "Eastern enlargement of the EU: jobs, investment and welfare in present member countries," CCSO Working Papers 200213, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research.
  5. Orla Doyle, 2010. "Unravelling Voters’ Perceptions of the Economy," Working Papers 201012, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
  6. John E. Jackson & Jacek Klich & Krystyna Poznanska, 2001. "Economic Transition and Elections in Poland," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 391, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  7. Fidrmuc, Jan, 2000. "Political support for reforms: Economics of voting in transition countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(8), pages 1491-1513, August.
  8. K. H. O'Rourke & R. Sinnott, 2001. "The Determinants of Individual Trade Policy Preferences: International Survey Evidence," CEG Working Papers 20016, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  9. Richard E. Baldwin & Joseph F. Francois & Richard Portes, 1997. "The costs and benefits of eastern enlargement: the impact on the EU and central Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 12(24), pages 125-176, 04.
  10. Michele Boldrin & Fabio Canova, 2001. "Inequality and convergence in Europe's regions: reconsidering European regional policies," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 16(32), pages 205-253, 04.
  11. Vlachos, Jonas, 2004. "Who wants political integration?: Evidence from the Swedish EU-membership referendum," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(7-8), pages 1589-1604, July.
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Cited by:
  1. Anne-Celia Disdier & Thierry Mayer, 2007. "Je t'aime, moi non plus: Bilateral opinions and international trade," Working Papers 9044, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, France.
  2. Rovelli, Riccardo & Zaiceva, Anzelika, 2009. "Transition Fatigue? Cross-Country Evidence from Micro Data," IZA Discussion Papers 4224, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  3. Lars Jonung, 2004. "To be or not to be in the euro? Benefits and costs of monetary unification as perceived by voters in the Swedish euro referendum 2003," European Economy - Economic Papers 205, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  4. Pierre-Guillaume Méon, 2005. "Voting and turning out for monetary integration: the case of the French referendum on the Maastricht treaty," DULBEA Working Papers 05-02.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  5. Lars Jonung, 2004. "The Political Economy of Monetary Unification: The Swedish Euro Referendum of 2003," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 24(1-2), pages 123-149, Spring/Su.
  6. Mihails Hazans, 2004. "EU referenda in the Baltics: understanding the results at the regional level," ERSA conference papers ersa04p138, European Regional Science Association.
  7. Kevin Denny & Patrick Orla Doyle, 2005. "Returns to basic skills in Central and Eastern Europe - a semi-parametric approach," Working Papers 200507, School Of Economics, University College Dublin.
  8. G Johnes, 2005. "Nations will fall? Revisiting the economic determinants of attitudes to European integration," Working Papers 566772, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.

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