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EU Enlargement: Economic Implications for Countries and Industries

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  • Arjan M. Lejour
  • Ruud A. de Mooij
  • Richard Nahuis

Abstract

This paper explores the economic consequences of the enlargement of the European Union with countries from Central and Eastern Europe. We focus on integration aspects that go beyond the reduction of formal trade barriers, namely accession to the internal market and free movement of labour. The economic implications for sixteen industries in several European countries are assessed by using WorldScan, a CGE model for the world economy. The results suggest that the candidate member states will gain substantially from accession to the internal market, although some sectors in these countries will shrink. Most EU countries will experience small welfare increases. We also find that the internal market effects are large compared to the economic effects of removing formal trade barriers and migration.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2001/wp-cesifo-2001-10/cesifo_wp585.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 585.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_585

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  1. Deardoff, A.V. & Brown, D.K. & Stern, R.M. & Djankov, S.D., 1995. "An Economic Assessment of the Integration of Czechoslovakia, Hungary, and Poland into the Europan Union," Working Papers 380, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  2. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1989. "The Generalized Gravity Equation, Monopolistic Competition, and the Factor-Proportions Theory in International Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(1), pages 143-53, February.
  3. Fritz Breuss, 2001. "Macroeconomic Effects of EU Enlargement on Old and New Members," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 74(11), pages 655-666, November.
  4. Richard E. Baldwin & Joseph F. Francois & Richard Portes, 1997. "The costs and benefits of eastern enlargement: the impact on the EU and central Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 12(24), pages 125-176, 04.
  5. Keuschnigg, Christian & Kohler, Wilhelm K., 1998. "Eastern Enlargement of the EU: How much is it Worth for Austria?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1786, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Brenton, Paul & Gros, Daniel, 1997. "Trade Reorientation and Recovery in Transition Economies," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(2), pages 65-76, Summer.
  7. McCallum, John, 1995. "National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 615-23, June.
  8. Bauer, Thomas K. & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 1999. "Report No. 3: Assessment of Possible Migration Pressure and its Labour Market Impact Following EU Enlargement to Central and Eastern Europe," IZA Research Reports 3, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  9. Alan V. Deardorff, 1995. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?," NBER Working Papers 5377, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Richard Nahuis, 2002. "One size fits all? Accession to the internal market; an industry level assessment of EU enlargement," CPB Discussion Paper 14, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
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