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EU accession and income growth: an empirical approach

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  • Arjan Lejour

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  • Vlado Solanic
  • Paul Tang

Abstract

The dynamic effects from EU membership are crucial for the new member states to catch up with the average income level in the old member states. To gauge the dynamic effects, we follow a two-step procedure in which a gravity equation for bilateral trade shows the trade effect of EU membership and a growth regression yields the income effect of trade. Shared EU membership is found to increase trade between two of its member states with about 34%. EU membership may contribute to trade by inducing countries to improve the quality of their institutions. Trade increases by another 22% if institutions improve, yielding a total trade increase of 56%. Improved openness increases income by 37.5% according to our estimates. Adding a small direct effect of improved institutions on income, the total income effect of EU membership is 39% for the ten new members. This implies that EU membership, or its effect on trade and institutions, could lead to large economic gains for the new member states, but does not bring them economically on par with the old member states.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis in its series CPB Discussion Paper with number 72.

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Date of creation: Oct 2006
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Handle: RePEc:cpb:discus:72

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Cited by:
  1. Péter Halmai & Viktória Vásáry, 2010. "Real convergence in the new Member States of the European Union (Shorter and longer term prospects)," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 7(1), pages 229-253, June.
  2. Péter Halmai & Viktória Vásáry, 2012. "Convergence crisis: economic crisis and convergence in the European Union," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 297-322, September.
  3. Arjan Lejour & Vladimir Solanic & Paul Tang, 2009. "EU Accession and Income Growth: An Empirical Approach," Transition Studies Review, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 127-144, May.
  4. Arjan Lejour & Gerard Verweij & A. Mervar, 2007. "The economic effects Croatia's accession to the EU," CPB Document 154, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  5. Andreas Billmeier & Isabella Massa, 2007. "What Drives Stock Market Development in the Middle East and Central Asia--Institutions, Remittances, or Natural Resources?," IMF Working Papers 07/157, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Lejour, Arjan Marcel & Mervar, Andrea & Verweij, Gerard, 2008. "The Economic Effects of Croatia's Accession to the EU," Economics Discussion Papers 2008-6, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  7. Bas Straathof & Gert Jan Linders & Arjan Lejour & Jan Möhlmann, 2008. "The internal market and the Dutch economy: implications for trade and economic growth," CPB Document 168, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.

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