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Who is in Favour of Enlargement? Determinants of Support for EU Membership in the Candidate's Countries Referenda

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  • Orlagh Doyle
  • Jan Fidrmuc

Abstract

This paper investigates both the macro and micro determinants of EU support as expressed in the 2003 referenda on EU membership and the 2002 Candidate Countries Eurobarometer survey data. It is found that favourable individual and regional characteristics, i.e., the “winners” of the transition process, are positively correlated with support for accession and voter participation. In contrast, those who should benefit from future EU transfers, i.e., the “losers” of the process, are less likely to vote and/or support EU membership. It is therefore argued that voters in the new member states assign greater weight on future benefits from liberalization and integration than on potential gains through redistribution. Classification-

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Paper provided by IIIS in its series The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series with number iiisdp045.

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Date of creation: 20 Apr 2005
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Handle: RePEc:iis:dispap:iiisdp045

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Keywords: Financial integration; capital flows; external assets and liabilities;

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  1. Ben J. Heijdra & Christian Keuschnigg & Wilhelm Kohler, 2002. "Eastern Enlargement of the EU: Jobs, Investment and Welfare in Present Member Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 718, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. John E. Jackson & Jacek Klich & Krystyna Poznanska, 2001. "Economic Transition and Elections in Poland," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 391, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  3. K. H. O'Rourke & R. Sinnott, 2001. "The Determinants of Individual Trade Policy Preferences: International Survey Evidence," CEG Working Papers 20016, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  4. Arjan Lejour & Ruud de Mooij & Richard Nahuis, 2001. "EU enlargement: economic implications for countries and industries," CPB Document 11, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  5. Vlachos, Jonas, 2004. "Who wants political integration?: Evidence from the Swedish EU-membership referendum," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(7-8), pages 1589-1604, July.
  6. Doyle, Orla & Fidrmuc, Jan, 2003. "Anatomy of Voting Behaviour and Attitudes During Post-Communist Transition Czech Republic 1990-98," CEPR Discussion Papers 3801, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Fritz Breuss, . "Macroeconomic Effects of EU Enlargement for Old and New Members," WIFO Working Papers 143, WIFO.
  8. Fidrmuc, Jan, 2000. "Political support for reforms: Economics of voting in transition countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(8), pages 1491-1513, August.
  9. Richard E. Baldwin & Joseph F. Francois & Richard Portes, 1997. "The costs and benefits of eastern enlargement: the impact on the EU and central Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 12(24), pages 125-176, 04.
  10. Orla Doyle, 2010. "Unravelling Voters’ Perceptions of the Economy," Working Papers 201012, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
  11. Michele Boldrin & Fabio Canova, 2001. "Inequality and convergence in Europe's regions: reconsidering European regional policies," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 16(32), pages 205-253, 04.
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Cited by:
  1. G Johnes, 2005. "Nations will fall? Revisiting the economic determinants of attitudes to European integration," Working Papers 566772, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
  2. Pierre-Guillaume Méon, 2009. "Voting and turning out for monetary integration: the case of the French referendum on the Maastricht treaty," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/89993, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  3. Disdier, Anne-Celia & Mayer, Thierry, 2007. "Je t'aime, moi non plus: Bilateral opinions and international trade," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 1140-1159, December.
  4. Lars Jonung, 2004. "To be or not to be in the euro? Benefits and costs of monetary unification as perceived by voters in the Swedish euro referendum 2003," European Economy - Economic Papers 205, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  5. Mihails Hazans, 2004. "EU referenda in the Baltics: understanding the results at the regional level," ERSA conference papers ersa04p138, European Regional Science Association.
  6. Lars Jonung, 2004. "The Political Economy of Monetary Unification: The Swedish Euro Referendum of 2003," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 24(1-2), pages 123-149, Spring/Su.
  7. Rovelli, Riccardo & Zaiceva, Anzelika, 2009. "Transition Fatigue? Cross-Country Evidence from Micro Data," IZA Discussion Papers 4224, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  8. Kevin Denny & Patrick Orla Doyle, 2005. "Returns to basic skills in Central and Eastern Europe - a semi-parametric approach," Working Papers 200507, School Of Economics, University College Dublin.

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