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Who is in Favour of Enlargement? Determinants of Support for EU Membership in the Candidate Countries Referenda

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  • Doyle, Orla
  • Fidrmuc, Jan

Abstract

We analyse support for EU membership as expressed in voting patterns in the candidate countries’ referenda on EU membership, using regional referendum results and individual survey data on voting intentions. We find that favourable individual and regional characteristics are positively correlated with support for accession and voter participation. In contrast, those who should benefit from future EU transfers are less likely to vote and/or support EU membership. We argue that voters in the candidate countries assign greater weight on future benefits from liberalization and integration than on potential gains through redistribution.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 4273.

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Date of creation: Feb 2004
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4273
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Keywords: eu enlargement; integration; referendum; voting; Z13;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
  • P26 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - Political Economy
  • P33 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - International Trade, Finance, Investment, Relations, and Aid

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  1. Vlachos, Jonas, 2004. "Who wants political integration?: Evidence from the Swedish EU-membership referendum," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(7-8), pages 1589-1604, July.
  2. Doyle, Orla & Fidrmuc, Jan, 2003. "Anatomy of Voting Behaviour and Attitudes During Post-Communist Transition Czech Republic 1990-98," CEPR Discussion Papers 3801, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Ben J. Heijdra & Christian Keuschnigg & Wilhelm Kohler, 2002. "Eastern Enlargement of the EU: Jobs, Investment and Welfare in Present Member Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 718, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. Fidrmuc, J., 1998. "Political Support for Reforms : Economics of Voting in Transition Countries," Discussion Paper 1998-98, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  5. John E. Jackson & Jacek Klich & Krystyna Poznanska, 2001. "Economic Transition and Elections in Poland," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 391, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  6. Fritz Breuss, . "Macroeconomic Effects of EU Enlargement for Old and New Members," WIFO Working Papers 143, WIFO.
  7. Arjan M. Lejour & Ruud A. de Mooij & Richard Nahuis, 2001. "EU Enlargement: Economic Implications for Countries and Industries," CESifo Working Paper Series 585, CESifo Group Munich.
  8. Orla Doyle, 2010. "Unravelling Voters’ Perceptions of the Economy," Working Papers 201012, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
  9. Jacques Pelkmans, 2002. "Economic Implications of Enlargement," Bruges European Economic Policy Briefings 1, European Economic Studies Department, College of Europe.
  10. Michele Boldrin & Fabio Canova, 2001. "Inequality and convergence in Europe's regions: reconsidering European regional policies," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 16(32), pages 205-253, 04.
  11. K. H. O'Rourke & R. Sinnott, 2001. "The Determinants of Individual Trade Policy Preferences: International Survey Evidence," CEG Working Papers 20016, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  12. Richard E. Baldwin & Joseph F. Francois & Richard Portes, 1997. "The costs and benefits of eastern enlargement: the impact on the EU and central Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 12(24), pages 125-176, 04.
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Cited by:

  1. Pierre-Guillaume Meon, 2009. "Voting and turning out for monetary integration: the case of the French referendum on the Maastricht treaty," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(18), pages 2369-2384.
  2. Anne-Célia Disdier & Thierry Mayer, 2007. "Je t'aime, moi non plus: Bilateral opinions and international trade," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/10183, Sciences Po.
  3. Lars Jonung, 2004. "The Political Economy of Monetary Unification: The Swedish Euro Referendum of 2003," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 24(1-2), pages 123-149, Spring/Su.
  4. Mihails Hazans, 2004. "EU referenda in the Baltics: understanding the results at the regional level," ERSA conference papers ersa04p138, European Regional Science Association.
  5. Lars Jonung, 2004. "To be or not to be in the euro? Benefits and costs of monetary unification as perceived by voters in the Swedish euro referendum 2003," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 205, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  6. Kevin Denny & Orla Doyle, 2005. "Returns to basic skills in Central & Eastern Europe : a semi parametric approach," Working Papers 200507, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
  7. Rovelli, Riccardo & Zaiceva, Anzelika, 2009. "Transition Fatigue? Cross-Country Evidence from Micro Data," IZA Discussion Papers 4224, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  8. G Johnes, 2005. "Nations will fall? Revisiting the economic determinants of attitudes to European integration," Working Papers 566772, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.

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