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Who is in Favour of Enlargement? Determinants of Support for EU Membership in the Candidate Countries Referenda

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  • Doyle, Orla
  • Fidrmuc, Jan

Abstract

We analyse support for EU membership as expressed in voting patterns in the candidate countries’ referenda on EU membership, using regional referendum results and individual survey data on voting intentions. We find that favourable individual and regional characteristics are positively correlated with support for accession and voter participation. In contrast, those who should benefit from future EU transfers are less likely to vote and/or support EU membership. We argue that voters in the candidate countries assign greater weight on future benefits from liberalization and integration than on potential gains through redistribution.

Suggested Citation

  • Doyle, Orla & Fidrmuc, Jan, 2004. "Who is in Favour of Enlargement? Determinants of Support for EU Membership in the Candidate Countries Referenda," CEPR Discussion Papers 4273, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4273
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jacques Pelkmans, 2002. "Economic Implications of Enlargement," Bruges European Economic Policy Briefings 1, European Economic Studies Department, College of Europe.
    2. Ben J Heijdra & Christian Keuschnigg & Wilhelm Kohler, 2014. "Eastern Enlargement of the EU: Jobs, Investment and Welfare in Present Member Countries," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: European Economic Integration, WTO Membership, Immigration and Offshoring, chapter 2, pages 37-83 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Doyle, Orla & Fidrmuc, Jan, 2003. "Anatomy of Voting Behaviour and Attitudes During Post-Communist Transition Czech Republic 1990-98," CEPR Discussion Papers 3801, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Fritz Breuss, 2001. "Makroökonomische Auswirkungen der EU-Erweiterung auf alte und neue Mitglieder," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 74(11), pages 655-666, November.
    5. Ricahrd E. Baldwin & Joseph F. Francois & Richard Portes, 1997. "The costs and benefits of eastern enlargement: the impact on the EU and central Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 12(24), pages 125-176, April.
    6. John E. Jackson & Jacek Klich & Krystyna Poznanska, 2001. "Economic Transition and Elections in Poland," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 391, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    7. Vlachos, Jonas, 2004. "Who wants political integration?: Evidence from the Swedish EU-membership referendum," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(7-8), pages 1589-1604, July.
    8. Fidrmuc, Jan, 2000. "Political support for reforms: Economics of voting in transition countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(8), pages 1491-1513, August.
    9. Arjan Lejour & Ruud de Mooij & Richard Nahuis, 2001. "EU enlargement: economic implications for countries and industries," CPB Document 11, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    10. K. H. O'Rourke & R. Sinnott, 2001. "The Determinants of Individual Trade Policy Preferences: International Survey Evidence," Trinity Economics Papers 200110, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    11. Ben J Heijdra & Christian Keuschnigg & Wilhelm Kohler, 2014. "Eastern Enlargement of the EU: Jobs, Investment and Welfare in Present Member Countries," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: European Economic Integration, WTO Membership, Immigration and Offshoring, chapter 2, pages 37-83, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    12. repec:wfo:wstudy:21477 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Orla Doyle, 2010. "Unravelling Voters’ Perceptions of the Economy," Working Papers 201012, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
    14. Michele Boldrin & Fabio Canova, 2001. "Inequality and convergence in Europe's regions: reconsidering European regional policies," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 16(32), pages 205-253, April.
    15. Fritz Breuss, 2001. "Macroeconomic Effects of EU Enlargement for Old and New Members," WIFO Working Papers 143, WIFO.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mihails Hazans, 2004. "EU referenda in the Baltics: understanding the results at the regional level," ERSA conference papers ersa04p138, European Regional Science Association.
    2. G Johnes, 2005. "Nations will fall? Revisiting the economic determinants of attitudes to European integration," Working Papers 566772, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    3. Kevin Denny & Orla Doyle, 2005. "Returns to basic skills in Central & Eastern Europe : a semi parametric approach," Working Papers 200507, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    4. Disdier, Anne-Celia & Mayer, Thierry, 2007. "Je t'aime, moi non plus: Bilateral opinions and international trade," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 1140-1159, December.
    5. Pierre-Guillaume Meon, 2009. "Voting and turning out for monetary integration: the case of the French referendum on the Maastricht treaty," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(18), pages 2369-2384.
    6. Ismael Sanz & Ferran Martinez Coma, 2007. "Skill and support to globalization in the EU," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 271-275.
    7. Lars Jonung, 2004. "The Political Economy of Monetary Unification: The Swedish Euro Referendum of 2003," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 24(1-2), pages 123-149, Spring/Su.
    8. Jonung, Lars, 2004. "To be or not to be in the euro? Benefits and costs of monetary unification as perceived by voters in the Swedish euro referendum 2003," MPRA Paper 1334, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Rovelli, Riccardo & Zaiceva, Anzelika, 2009. "Transition Fatigue? Cross-Country Evidence from Micro Data," IZA Discussion Papers 4224, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    eu enlargement; integration; referendum; voting; Z13;

    JEL classification:

    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • P26 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - Political Economy
    • P33 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - International Trade, Finance, Investment, Relations, and Aid

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